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Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
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AI Predicted Winner
Estudiantes L.P.
54.7%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Estudiantes L.P.✦ AI Pick | Draw | Newells Old Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
Bet365Best Odds | |||
Pinnacle | |||
Superbet | |||
| Best Odds |
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Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys prediction: this Liga Profesional Argentina clash at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi pits the Apertura table-topper against a struggling mid-table side fighting to find consistency.
Estudiantes sit first in their group with 31 points from 16 games, boasting the league's best defensive record at just 0.65 goals conceded per game. Their recent form is mixed across competitions, including a demanding Copa Argentina and Libertadores schedule, but domestically they've shown quality with big wins over Gimnasia L.P. and Defensa y Justicia sandwiched around some rotation-affected losses.
Newells arrive in poor shape, sitting 14th with a negative goal difference and conceding 1.5 goals per game on average. Two wins in their last three matches offer a glimmer of momentum, but their away record this season shows just two wins from ten trips.
With a 13-place gap and a full point per game advantage, Estudiantes look well-placed for a routine home win, though fatigue from midweek cup football is a factor worth monitoring. Expect Estudiantes to control possession and create the bulk of clear chances, with Newells likely set up defensively to limit the damage. A comfortable home win remains the most probable outcome here, backed by superior underlying numbers and home advantage.
Moderate
Moderate
Even
Low
2026 Season
No reported injuries or suspensions for either team
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
These sides have met twice in the past two years, both ending 1-1 draws — once in La Plata (March...
These sides have met twice in the past two years, both ending 1-1 draws — once in La Plata (March 2025) and once in Rosario (September 2025), plus a February 2026 meeting won 2-0 by Newells as the home side. The head-to-head has been closer than the current league standings suggest, with draws a recurring theme. However, Estudiantes' dominant home Liga form this term marks a shift from those tighter recent meetings.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLiga Profesional Argentina matches highlighted
8 of 15 in Liga Profesional Argentina
Form Rating
5.3/10
Estudiantes top their Apertura group with 31 points, built on a stingy defense conceding just...
Estudiantes top their Apertura group with 31 points, built on a stingy defense conceding just 0.65 goals per game and 11 clean sheets in 23 outings. Their home record of seven wins from twelve is solid, though a run of three losses in their last seven across competitions shows some vulnerability, largely tied to rotation for Libertadores duty. Recent standout performances include a 4-0 demolition of Gimnasia L.P. and a 3-0 win over Universidad Catolica. Fatigue is a mild concern given a congested fixture list involving Copa Argentina and Continental football, but the squad's overall quality and home comfort remain the headline factors.
14 of 15 in Liga Profesional Argentina
Form Rating
5.7/10
Newells sit 14th with a modest 0.94 points-per-game average and a negative goal difference of...
Newells sit 14th with a modest 0.94 points-per-game average and a negative goal difference of -12, reflecting a season of defensive fragility — 33 goals conceded in 22 matches. Two consecutive wins over Banfield and Deportivo Riestra suggest a mild upturn, snapping a longer stretch of inconsistent results including a heavy 5-0 defeat to Lanus earlier in the campaign. Their away form is particularly weak, with just two wins in ten road games this season. Extra rest of eight days compared to Estudiantes' three could offer a slight freshness edge, but their defensive issues remain the primary obstacle against a high-quality home attack.
Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys - Match Analysis
Estudiantes top their group with elite defensive numbers, conceding only 0.65 goals per game, while Newells sit 14th with a leaky defense shipping 1.5 per game. The 13-place standings gap and a full point-per-game advantage for Estudiantes reinforce the bookmaker consensus of 54.7% home win probability, making this one of the clearer favorites on the Liga Profesional Argentina card this week.
Draw No Bet on Estudiantes is an appealing option, protecting against a surprise draw while still capturing value from their quality edge. Under 2.5 Goals also stands out given Estudiantes' defensive solidity and Newells' inconsistent scoring away from home, with combined goals per game sitting at just 2.18 this season.
Estudiantes have navigated a congested fixture list including Copa Argentina and Libertadores football, causing some inconsistency, but their underlying quality remains clear with recent big wins over Gimnasia L.P. and Universidad Catolica. Newells have shown a mild upturn with back-to-back wins, but their poor road record and defensive fragility make an away victory or clean sheet unlikely here.
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