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Valencia
Valencia15th in La Liga (7-8-11)
VS
Alaves
Alaves16th in La Liga (7-6-13)

Valencia vs Alaves

Sunday, Mar 8, 2026 · --:--

Estadio de Mestalla

Final
Valencia
3–2
Alaves

Valencia won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

This Valencia vs Alaves prediction centers on two struggling La Liga sides separated by just one point in the table. Valencia (15th, 29 points) hosts Alaves (16th, 27 points) at Mestalla in a crucial relegation battle. The bookmaker consensus favors Valencia at 45.4% probability, reflecting their marginal home advantage despite both teams' poor form. Valencia has managed just one win in their last five league matches but showed resilience with a 1-0 victory over Osasuna last time out. Their home record (5-5-3) provides some comfort at Mestalla. Alaves arrives winless in four matches, including a disappointing 2-0 defeat to relegation rivals Levante. Both teams struggle offensively, combining for just 1.92 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. Valencia's injury list includes key defender Diakhaby and goalkeeper Agirrezabala, while Alaves miss suspended midfielder Ibanez and face defensive concerns. With both sides desperate for points to climb away from the relegation zone, this La Liga preview expects a cagey encounter where expert picks favor the home side's slight edge, though free tips suggest exploring alternative markets given the unpredictable nature of this fixture.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Unfavorable

Injury Impact

High

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Valencia7-8-1126.9%
Alaves7-6-1326.9%
Goals Scored
Valencia27
Alaves23
Goals Conceded
Valencia39
Alaves34
Goal Difference
Valencia-12
Alaves-11

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Valencia vs Alaves - Match Analysis

Why is Valencia favored despite their poor recent form?

Valencia's home advantage at Mestalla proves decisive in this tight relegation battle. Their home record of five wins from thirteen games significantly outperforms Alaves' dismal away form with just two road victories. The bookmaker consensus reflects Valencia's superior home environment and Alaves' travel struggles, despite both teams' overall poor form this season.

What alternative bets should I consider for Valencia vs Alaves?

Draw No Bet: Valencia offers excellent value by removing draw risk while maintaining upside. Under 2.5 Goals presents strong appeal given both teams average just 1.92 goals combined per game. Both Teams to Score: No provides another solid option, as these defensive-minded relegation battlers often produce low-scoring affairs with multiple blanks.

How do the injury concerns affect this prediction?

Valencia's defensive injuries to Diakhaby and Agirrezabala weaken their backline, while Alaves miss suspended midfielder Ibanez and face doubts over Koski. These absences level the playing field somewhat, but Valencia's greater squad depth at home provides them with better cover for missing players in this crucial relegation six-pointer.

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Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Valencia (2)Draws (3)Alaves (5)
Oct 20, 25
(H)Alaves0 - 0Valencia(A)
D
May 14, 25
(H)Alaves1 - 0Valencia(A)
H
Dec 22, 24
(H)Valencia2 - 2Alaves(A)
D
Jul 24, 24
(H)Valencia0 - 1Alaves(A)
A
May 5, 24
(H)Valencia0 - 1Alaves(A)
A
Sep 2, 23
(H)Alaves1 - 0Valencia(A)
H
Jul 29, 23
(H)Valencia2 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Feb 13, 22
(H)Alaves2 - 1Valencia(A)
H
Aug 27, 21
(H)Valencia3 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Apr 24, 21
(H)Valencia1 - 1Alaves(A)
D

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent head-to-head encounters favor Alaves, who remain unbeaten in their last three meetings with Valencia. The reverse fixture this season...

Recent head-to-head encounters favor Alaves, who remain unbeaten in their last three meetings with Valencia. The reverse fixture this season ended goalless at Mendizorrotza, while Alaves won 1-0 at Mestalla in May 2025. Valencia's last victory came in August 2021 with a commanding 3-0 home win. The pattern shows tight, low-scoring affairs with Alaves proving resilient against Valencia in recent years, making them a dangerous opponent despite their current league struggles.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted

Valencia

12 of 15 in La Liga

W
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
W
D
L
D
W
L
D

Form Rating

5/10

Valencia Form Analysis

Trending

Valencia's recent form shows inconsistency with three wins, two draws, and five defeats in their...

Valencia's recent form shows inconsistency with three wins, two draws, and five defeats in their last ten matches. Their home advantage at Mestalla remains crucial, winning five of thirteen home games this season. The 1-0 victory over Osasuna provided a morale boost after consecutive away defeats to Real Madrid and Villarreal. Defensively fragile, conceding 1.5 goals per game, but they've shown character in tight games. Key injuries to Diakhaby and Agirrezabala weaken their defensive options. Hugo Duro leads their modest attack with limited support, making goal creation a persistent challenge for the struggling Valencia side.

Alaves

12 of 15 in La Liga

L
D
D
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
D
L
W
L
W

Form Rating

4.3/10

Alaves Form Analysis

Analysis

Alaves enters this fixture in poor form, winning just two of their last ten league...

Alaves enters this fixture in poor form, winning just two of their last ten league matches. Their away record is particularly concerning with only two wins from thirteen road trips this season. The 2-0 defeat to fellow strugglers Levante highlighted their attacking limitations, managing just 0.88 goals per game. Defensive frailties continue with 1.31 goals conceded per match. Suspensions to Ibanez and Parada further deplete their options, while Koski remains doubtful with injury. Despite recent struggles, they've shown resilience against Valencia historically and will fight desperately for points in this relegation six-pointer at Mestalla.

shieldValencia5

  • M. Diakhaby profile photo

    M. Diakhaby

    Muscle Injury
    Out
  • L. Beltran profile photo

    L. Beltran

    Knee Injury
    Questionable
  • D. Foulquier profile photo

    D. Foulquier

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • J. Copete profile photo

    J. Copete

    Ankle Injury
    Out
  • J. Agirrezabala profile photo

    J. Agirrezabala

    Knee Injury
    Out
M. DiakhabyValencia
L. BeltranValencia
D. FoulquierValencia
J. CopeteValencia
J. AgirrezabalaValencia

shieldAlaves5

  • M. Diaz profile photo

    M. Diaz

    Coach's decision
    Out
  • F. Garces profile photo

    F. Garces

    Suspended
    Out
  • V. Koski profile photo

    V. Koski

    Knee Injury
    Questionable
  • V. Parada profile photo

    V. Parada

    Red Card
    Out
  • P. Ibanez profile photo

    P. Ibanez

    Yellow Cards
    Out
M. DiazAlaves
F. GarcesAlaves
V. KoskiAlaves
V. ParadaAlaves
P. IbanezAlaves

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.