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AI Predicted Winner
Sevilla
46%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Sevilla✦ AI Pick | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
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Betfair | |||
Pinnacle | |||
| Best Odds |
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Sevilla vs Alaves prediction: this Matchday 12 La Liga clash pits sixth-placed Sevilla (17 points) against seventh-placed Alaves (12 points) in a tight mid-table contest, and the bookmaker consensus leans toward the hosts at 45.3%.
Sevilla have won five of their last ten league outings, scoring 1.6 goals per game. They arrive fresh after a 2-0 home win over Osasuna and a 3-0 Copa del Rey win away at Hortaleza, with a full week of rest. Their away form (two wins, two draws, one loss) has been better than their home record of three wins from five, yet their goals conceded rate of 1.6 per game remains a concern.
Alaves have drawn three and won three of their last ten, with a points-per-game average of 1.2. Their home record is respectable, but away they are winless, with two draws and two losses from four trips. They are also without the suspended F. Garces and the injured M. Rodriguez, and their congested fixture list (Barcelona away, a Copa tie, then this trip) may drain them.
Sevilla are missing defender Marcao and M. Sierra, which dents their depth at the back, but Alaves' lack of road wins is the bigger factor. Expect a competitive game with goals at both ends, though the home side's superior form and rest edge give them the advantage. Our pick is a narrow Sevilla win, with a draw a very real threat.
Moderate
Moderate
Unfavorable
Moderate
2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Recent head-to-head meetings since late 2024 are finely balanced. The latest clash in February 2026 finished 1-1 at Sevilla, while...
Recent head-to-head meetings since late 2024 are finely balanced. The latest clash in February 2026 finished 1-1 at Sevilla, while Alaves edged the December 2025 Copa del Rey tie 1-0. Alaves also won 2-1 at home in September 2025, and Sevilla drew 1-1 at home in April 2025. Alaves won 2-1 in September 2024 as well. The pattern is clear: low margins, frequent draws and few runaway results. Sevilla have not beaten Alaves in any of the last five meetings, so history says to expect a close contest.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
11 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
5.3/10
Sevilla's form is solid but inconsistent: five wins, two draws and three defeats from their...
Sevilla's form is solid but inconsistent: five wins, two draws and three defeats from their last ten league games. The 4-1 loss at Real Madrid and a 3-1 home defeat to Barcelona show they struggle against elite sides, but they have responded well, beating Osasuna 2-0 and winning 3-0 in the Copa del Rey. They average 1.6 goals scored and conceded, producing entertaining games. Home form (three wins, two losses) is slightly weaker than their road record. Marcao and M. Sierra are injury absences that thin the defence, so keeping clean sheets could be a challenge against a side that scores regularly.
11 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
5.3/10
Alaves have been inconsistent, taking three wins, three draws and four losses from ten league...
Alaves have been inconsistent, taking three wins, three draws and four losses from ten league matches with a points-per-game rate of 1.2. They are strongest at home, but their away record is poor: no wins, two draws and two defeats from four. Recent results include a 1-1 draw with Malaga, a 2-1 loss at Celta Vigo and a 2-1 home defeat to Atletico Madrid. Their defence is decent at 1.1 goals conceded per game, and they have three clean sheets, but scoring away from home has been difficult. With F. Garces suspended and M. Rodriguez injured, plus a busy schedule, they face an uphill task.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Sevilla vs Alaves - Match Analysis
Sevilla sit one place higher in the table with a 0.5 points-per-game advantage, and they have had a full week of rest after their Copa del Rey win. Alaves are winless away from home this season, with two draws and two defeats from four trips. Home advantage and the bookmakers' 45.3% implied probability reinforce the pick, although the edge is modest rather than commanding.
Yes. Alaves have beaten Sevilla in their last two competitive meetings in the cup and in league play at home, and Sevilla have not won any of the last five head-to-head games. Sevilla also concede 1.6 goals per game and are missing defenders Marcao and M. Sierra. If Alaves defend compactly and counter, they can grab a draw or even a win, though their poor away record makes that a bigger ask.
The safest option is Double Chance: Sevilla or Draw, covering about 75% of outcomes. Over 2.5 Goals suits a match where the teams average a combined 3.0 goals per game, and Both Teams to Score is also reasonable given Sevilla's leaky defence. Draw No Bet on Sevilla is a good hedge, since the H2H history suggests a draw is a genuine possibility.
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