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Real Madrid
Real Madrid2nd in La Liga (22-4-5)
VS
Alaves
Alaves17th in La Liga (8-9-14)

Real Madrid vs Alaves

Tuesday, Apr 21, 2026 · --:--

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Final
Real Madrid
2–1
Alaves

Real Madrid won

✓Our prediction was correct

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our Real Madrid vs Alaves prediction strongly favors the home side in this La Liga preview. Los Blancos sit 2nd with 70 points, while Alaves languishes in 17th with just 33 points - a massive 15-place gap that reflects their contrasting seasons. Real Madrid's 2.26 points per game dwarfs Alaves' 1.06, with the hosts averaging 2.1 goals scored versus just 1.13 for the visitors. The bookmaker consensus aligns with this assessment, pricing Madrid at 72.3% probability. Real Madrid's perfect 16-0-0 home record this season makes the Bernabéu a fortress, while Alaves has managed just three away wins all campaign. Key injuries to Courtois and Rodrygo won't derail Madrid's momentum, with their attacking depth remaining formidable. Alaves arrives with suspensions to Garces and Rebbach, further weakening their already limited options. Recent form shows Madrid winning three of their last five league matches, while Alaves has drawn three of five, including entertaining encounters with Real Sociedad and Osasuna. This represents excellent value among today's football tips, with our expert picks strongly backing the home victory.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Real Madrid (9)Alaves (1)
Dec 14, 25
(H)Alaves1 - 2Real Madrid(A)
A
Apr 13, 25
(H)Alaves0 - 1Real Madrid(A)
A
Sep 24, 24
(H)Real Madrid3 - 2Alaves(A)
H
May 14, 24
(H)Real Madrid5 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Dec 21, 23
(H)Alaves0 - 1Real Madrid(A)
A
Feb 19, 22
(H)Real Madrid3 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Aug 14, 21
(H)Alaves1 - 4Real Madrid(A)
A
Jan 23, 21
(H)Alaves1 - 4Real Madrid(A)
A
Nov 28, 20
(H)Real Madrid1 - 2Alaves(A)
A
Jul 10, 20
(H)Real Madrid2 - 0Alaves(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Real Madrid dominates this fixture historically, winning both recent encounters since 2024. The December 2025 meeting saw Madrid triumph 2-1...

Real Madrid dominates this fixture historically, winning both recent encounters since 2024. The December 2025 meeting saw Madrid triumph 2-1 away at Mendizorrotza, while they also secured a 1-0 victory in April 2025. Prior meetings show Madrid's overwhelming superiority, including a devastating 5-0 home win in 2024. Alaves managed just one victory in their last ten meetings, a surprising 2-1 home win in November 2020. The head-to-head record strongly supports Madrid's favoritism.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted

Real Madrid

9 of 15 in La Liga

L
D
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W

Form Rating

6.3/10

Real Madrid Form Analysis

Trending

Real Madrid enters with solid momentum despite recent Champions League disappointment against Bayern Munich. Their...

Real Madrid enters with solid momentum despite recent Champions League disappointment against Bayern Munich. Their domestic form shows three wins from five league matches, including impressive victories over Atletico Madrid (3-2) and Elche (4-1) at the Bernabéu. The perfect 16-0-0 home record this season demonstrates their fortress-like dominance, averaging 3.19 goals per home game while conceding just 0.56. Recent setbacks came against quality opposition - Bayern in Europe and Mallorca away. Key injuries to Courtois and Rodrygo are concerning, but Madrid's squad depth remains exceptional. Vinícius, Benzema, and Modrić continue driving their title challenge. Six days' rest since the Bayern defeat ensures freshness for this crucial fixture.

Alaves

13 of 15 in La Liga

D
D
W
D
L
L
D
D
L
L
W
W
L
W
L

Form Rating

4.3/10

Alaves Form Analysis

Analysis

Alaves shows resilience despite their lowly position, drawing three of their last five league matches....

Alaves shows resilience despite their lowly position, drawing three of their last five league matches. The entertaining 3-3 draw at Real Sociedad highlighted their attacking potential, while they've also secured valuable points against Osasuna (2-2) and Villarreal (1-1). However, their away form remains deeply concerning with just three wins from 16 road trips. Averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game reflects their struggles at both ends. Suspensions to Garces and Rebbach weaken their already limited squad, while Protesoni remains doubtful with injury. Ten days' rest since their last match could help, but their 0-3-10 away record against top-half teams this season tells the story.

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Real Madrid22-4-571.0%
Alaves8-9-1425.8%
Goals Scored
Real Madrid65
Alaves35
Goals Conceded
Real Madrid29
Alaves46

shieldReal Madrid3

  • T. Courtois profile photo

    T. Courtois

    Thigh Injury
    Out
  • Rodrygo profile photo

    Rodrygo

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • R. Asencio profile photo

    R. Asencio

    Illness
    Out
T. CourtoisReal Madrid
RodrygoReal Madrid
R. AsencioReal Madrid

shieldAlaves3

  • C. Protesoni profile photo

    C. Protesoni

    Muscle Injury
    Questionable
  • F. Garces profile photo

    F. Garces

    Suspended
    Out
  • A. Rebbach profile photo

    A. Rebbach

    Yellow Cards
    Out
C. ProtesoniAlaves
F. GarcesAlaves
A. RebbachAlaves

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Favorable

Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Real Madrid+36
Alaves-11

Real Madrid vs Alaves - Match Analysis

Why is Real Madrid so heavily favored against Alaves?

The 15-place league gap tells the complete story - Madrid sits 2nd with 70 points while Alaves struggles in 17th with just 33. Madrid's perfect 16-0-0 home record contrasts sharply with Alaves' dismal 3-3-10 away form. The 1.20 points-per-game differential and Madrid's superior attacking output (2.1 vs 1.13 goals per game) create an overwhelming statistical advantage that bookmakers have correctly priced at 72.3% probability.

What alternative bets should I consider for Real Madrid vs Alaves?

Over 2.5 Goals offers the best alternative value, with Madrid averaging 3.19 goals per home game and both teams combining for 3.23 goals per match. Madrid -1.5 Asian Handicap provides better odds than the straight win while reflecting their typical winning margins. Both Teams to Score No could also work given Alaves' poor away attacking record, though Madrid's occasional defensive lapses make this riskier than the goal markets.

How do Real Madrid's recent injuries affect this prediction?

Courtois and Rodrygo's absences are notable but shouldn't derail Madrid's dominance. Their squad depth remains exceptional with world-class alternatives across all positions. Alaves faces bigger personnel issues with suspensions to Garces and Rebbach removing key players from an already limited squad. Madrid's injury concerns pale compared to Alaves' combination of suspensions, injuries, and general lack of quality depth for this challenging away fixture.

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