Prediction Model Formula
P(outcome)=Formw×H2Hadj×xGratio×Venuemod
- Form Weight: 35%
- H2H Factor: 20%
- xG Analysis: 25%
- Venue Boost: 20%
AI vs Market Probabilities
- Mallorca45%
- Draw30%
- Athletic Club25%
Analysis
Our AI model identifies this as a closely matched encounter with slight favor toward the home side. Probability analysis suggests Mallorca's home advantage and Athletic's poor away form are key factors. Athletic's injury crisis, particularly in defense, combined with their recent heavy defeats creates vulnerability. Mallorca's desperate need for points in their relegation battle provides additional motivation. The model weighs Athletic's superior overall quality against their current struggles and fixture congestion, resulting in a narrow prediction favoring the hosts.
