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Estadio Abanca-Balaídos
Alaves won
Our Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction highlights a significant class gap in this La Liga preview. Celta sits 6th with Conference League qualification hopes, while Alaves languishes in 17th, just 11 points behind but with a vastly inferior goal difference (-12 vs +7). The bookmaker consensus strongly favors the hosts at 51.3%, reflecting their superior attacking output (1.36 vs 0.93 goals per game) and home advantage at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos. Celta's recent Europa League exploits demonstrate their quality, progressing to the Round of 16 despite fixture congestion concerns with just two days' rest. Alaves arrives better rested but struggling for goals, managing just 26 in 28 league games. Key absences include Ilaix Moriba (suspension) for Celta and Facundo Garces (suspension) for Alaves. Our expert picks favor the hosts in this football tips today encounter, with the market offering solid value on Celta's superior form and home record. These free tips suggest backing the home side in what should be a routine victory for the Conference League hopefuls.
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2025/2026 Season
Celta Vigo vs Alaves - Match Analysis
Celta enjoys a massive 11-position league advantage, sitting 6th with Conference League hopes while Alaves fights relegation in 17th. The hosts average 1.36 goals per game compared to Alaves' meager 0.93, and boast a superior goal difference (+7 vs -12). Home advantage at Balaídos, where Celta historically dominates this fixture, further strengthens their position. Recent head-to-head results heavily favor the Galicians.
While Celta has just two days' rest after beating Lyon 2-0 in the Europa League, their superior squad depth and motivation for European qualification should overcome fatigue concerns. Alaves' eight-day rest advantage is negated by their poor away form and lack of quality. The fixture congestion risk is outweighed by Celta's class difference and home advantage in this crucial Conference League qualification battle.
Draw No Bet: Celta Vigo offers excellent value, covering both home win and draw scenarios given the 32.1% combined draw rate. Asian Handicap Celta -0.5 provides similar protection with potentially better odds. Consider Both Teams to Score: No, as Alaves fails to score in 36% of matches and struggles particularly away from home, managing just 0.93 goals per game on the road.
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Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Recent encounters favor Celta Vigo significantly. In their last meeting this season, Celta won 1-0 away at Mendizorrotza in November...
Recent encounters favor Celta Vigo significantly. In their last meeting this season, Celta won 1-0 away at Mendizorrotza in November 2025. The previous season saw a 1-1 draw at Alaves and a 2-1 Celta victory at home. Historically, Celta dominates this fixture at Balaídos, including memorable victories like 6-0 and 4-0 in recent years. Alaves has struggled particularly when visiting Vigo, failing to win there since 2019.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
9 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6.3/10
Celta Vigo shows impressive recent form despite fixture congestion. They've won four of their last...
Celta Vigo shows impressive recent form despite fixture congestion. They've won four of their last six matches across all competitions, including a stunning 2-0 victory at Lyon in the Europa League Round of 16. Their attacking prowess shines with 1.36 goals per game, while defensively they're solid at 1.11 conceded per match. The high draw rate (39.3%) reflects their ability to grind results. However, fatigue concerns loom with just two days' rest after European action. Key midfielder Ilaix Moriba misses through suspension, while Matias Vecino remains doubtful. Iago Aspas continues to be their creative fulcrum.
12 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
4/10
Alaves arrives in poor form, managing just one point from their last three league matches....
Alaves arrives in poor form, managing just one point from their last three league matches. Their 1-1 draw with Villarreal masks deeper issues - they've scored only 26 goals in 28 games, the second-lowest in La Liga. Away form is particularly concerning with just two wins from 14 road trips. Recent losses at Valencia (3-2) and Levante (2-0) highlight defensive frailties, conceding 1.36 goals per game. The suspension of Facundo Garces weakens their backline further. Carlos Protesoni remains questionable through injury. Their 25% win rate tells the story of a team fighting relegation rather than competing for points.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
