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Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid4th in La Liga (11-5-3)
VS
Alaves
Alaves16th in La Liga (5-4-10)

Atletico Madrid vs Alaves

Sunday, Jan 18, 2026 · --:--

Metropolitano Stadium

Final
Atletico Madrid
1–0
Alaves

Atletico Madrid won

✓Our prediction was correct

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our Atletico Madrid vs Alaves prediction favors the hosts in this La Liga preview clash at the Metropolitano Stadium. Atletico sits fourth with 38 points, maintaining Champions League qualification hopes despite recent inconsistency. Their home fortress remains strong with eight wins from nine matches, though they've struggled with away form lately. Alaves languishes in 16th place with just 19 points, dangerously close to relegation territory. The visitors have managed only one away win all season and arrive after a heavy 3-1 defeat to Villarreal. With Atletico enjoying nine days of rest compared to Alaves' eight, Diego Simeone's men should capitalize on home advantage. Our expert picks suggest backing the hosts, while football tips today point to a comfortable victory for the Madrid side given the significant quality gap between these teams.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Atletico Madrid (6)Draws (2)Alaves (2)
Aug 30, 25
(H)Alaves1 - 1Atletico Madrid(A)
D
May 3, 25
(H)Alaves0 - 0Atletico Madrid(A)
D
Nov 23, 24
(H)Atletico Madrid2 - 1Alaves(A)
H
Apr 21, 24
(H)Alaves2 - 0Atletico Madrid(A)
H
Oct 29, 23
(H)Atletico Madrid2 - 1Alaves(A)
H
Apr 2, 22
(H)Atletico Madrid4 - 1Alaves(A)
H
Sep 25, 21
(H)Alaves1 - 0Atletico Madrid(A)
H
Mar 21, 21
(H)Atletico Madrid1 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Jan 3, 21
(H)Alaves1 - 2Atletico Madrid(A)
A
Jun 27, 20
(H)Atletico Madrid2 - 1Alaves(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent head-to-head encounters show a competitive rivalry with mixed results. The teams drew 1-1 when they met earlier this season...

Recent head-to-head encounters show a competitive rivalry with mixed results. The teams drew 1-1 when they met earlier this season at Mendizorrotza, with both sides finding the net. Their last meeting at the Metropolitano in November 2024 saw Atletico secure a 2-1 victory, demonstrating their home advantage in this fixture. The historical pattern suggests close contests, but Atletico's superior quality typically prevails at their home venue.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted

Atletico Madrid

10 of 15 in La Liga

L
D
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
W

Form Rating

7.7/10

Atletico Madrid Form Analysis

Trending

Atletico Madrid enters this match with mixed recent form, having suffered a disappointing 2-1 Super...

Atletico Madrid enters this match with mixed recent form, having suffered a disappointing 2-1 Super Cup semi-final defeat to Real Madrid. However, their domestic form shows resilience with impressive victories over Girona (3-0) and Valencia (2-1) at home. The Metropolitano remains their stronghold with eight wins from nine league matches, conceding just seven goals. Key injuries to Clement Lenglet (knee) and doubts over Nico Gonzalez (thigh) could impact their defensive options. Antoine Griezmann continues to be their creative spark, while their solid defensive structure under Simeone provides the foundation for success.

Alaves

12 of 15 in La Liga

L
D
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
D
W

Form Rating

4.7/10

Alaves Form Analysis

Analysis

Alaves arrives in poor form following a crushing 3-1 defeat to Villarreal, extending their worrying...

Alaves arrives in poor form following a crushing 3-1 defeat to Villarreal, extending their worrying run of inconsistent performances. The Basque side has managed just one away victory all season, highlighting their struggles on the road. Their recent 1-1 draw with bottom-placed Oviedo at home demonstrates their lack of killer instinct against weaker opposition. Defensive frailties have been exposed regularly, while their attack lacks the firepower to trouble quality opponents. With Moussa Diarra and Miguel Diaz both questionable for selection, their squad depth concerns are evident as they battle relegation.

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Atletico Madrid11-5-357.9%
Alaves5-4-1026.3%
Goals Scored
Atletico Madrid34
Alaves16
Goals Conceded
Atletico Madrid17
Alaves24

shieldAtletico Madrid2

  • C. Lenglet profile photo

    C. Lenglet

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • N. Gonzalez profile photo

    N. Gonzalez

    Thigh Injury
    Questionable
C. LengletAtletico Madrid
N. GonzalezAtletico Madrid

shieldAlaves4

  • M. Diaz profile photo

    M. Diaz

    Inactive
    Questionable
  • F. Garces profile photo

    F. Garces

    Suspended
    Out
  • M. Diarra profile photo

    M. Diarra

    Inactive
    Questionable
  • V. Parada profile photo

    V. Parada

    Yellow Cards
    Questionable
M. DiazAlaves
F. GarcesAlaves
M. DiarraAlaves
V. ParadaAlaves

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Even

Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Atletico Madrid+17
Alaves-8

Atletico Madrid vs Alaves - Match Analysis

Why is Atletico Madrid strongly favored against Alaves?

Atletico's dominance stems from their exceptional home record (eight wins from nine matches) and the significant 19-point gap separating these teams in the table. Their defensive organization under Simeone, combined with Alaves' terrible away form (just one victory all season), creates a clear quality differential that our prediction model heavily weighs in favor of the hosts.

What alternative bets should I consider for Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?

Over 2.5 Goals offers excellent value given Atletico's attacking prowess at home and Alaves' defensive vulnerabilities on the road. Additionally, Atletico -1.5 Asian Handicap provides attractive odds considering their typical winning margins at the Metropolitano. Both Teams to Score No also appeals given Alaves' poor away scoring record this season.

What are the stakes of this game for both teams?

For Atletico Madrid, this represents a crucial opportunity to maintain their Champions League qualification push, sitting fourth but needing consistent results to fend off competition. Alaves faces a relegation battle, positioned just three points above the drop zone in 16th place. Every point is vital for their survival hopes, making this a must-win situation despite the difficult venue.

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