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Alaves
Alaves14th in La Liga (11-10-16)
VS
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano8th in La Liga (11-14-12)

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

Saturday, May 23, 2026 · --:--

Estadio Mendizorrotza

Final
Alaves
1–2
Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano won

Our prediction was wrong
✗

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Alaves and Rayo Vallecano meet in La Liga action on May 23rd in what promises to be a tightly contested encounter between two defensively organized sides. Both teams have established themselves as difficult opponents to break down this season, with their tactical approaches favoring structure over expansive attacking play.

The statistical profile of both clubs strongly supports an even contest. Alaves and Rayo Vallecano have consistently produced low-scoring affairs throughout the campaign, with their expected goals data reflecting limited clear-cut chances created. Their possession statistics and defensive metrics indicate well-drilled units that prioritize solidity at the back.

Weather conditions will be ideal for football with clear skies and temperatures around 23°C, eliminating any external factors that might disrupt normal tactical patterns. This neutral environment should allow both teams to implement their preferred game plans without adaptation, further reinforcing the likelihood of a balanced encounter.

The betting market reflects the competitive nature of this fixture, with the draw emerging as the most probable outcome. Given both teams' tendency to cancel each other out in similar matchups and their comparable league positions, a share of the points appears the most logical result. The combination of defensive stability and limited attacking threat from both sides creates compelling value in the stalemate market.

Key Factors

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Alaves (4)Rayo Vallecano (6)
Jan 14, 26
(H)Alaves2 - 0Rayo Vallecano(A)
H
Oct 26, 25
(H)Rayo Vallecano1 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Mar 29, 25
(H)Alaves0 - 2Rayo Vallecano(A)
A
Oct 26, 24
(H)Rayo Vallecano1 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Mar 10, 24
(H)Alaves1 - 0Rayo Vallecano(A)
H
Sep 15, 23
(H)Rayo Vallecano2 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Apr 16, 22
(H)Alaves1 - 0Rayo Vallecano(A)
H
Dec 18, 21
(H)Rayo Vallecano2 - 0Alaves(A)
H
Jan 28, 19
(H)Alaves0 - 1Rayo Vallecano(A)
A
Sep 22, 18
(H)Rayo Vallecano1 - 5Alaves(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters heavily favor Alaves with three wins from four meetings since 2024. Most significantly, Alaves secured a 2-0 Copa...

Recent encounters heavily favor Alaves with three wins from four meetings since 2024. Most significantly, Alaves secured a 2-0 Copa del Rey victory in January 2026 and won 1-0 away at Rayo in October 2025. The pattern shows low-scoring affairs with Alaves particularly effective at home in this fixture. Rayo's last victory came in March 2025 with a 2-0 home win, but they've struggled to break down Alaves' defensive setup in recent years.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted

Alaves

15 of 15 in La Liga

W
W
D
L
W
L
D
D
W
D
L
L
D
D
L

Form Rating

4.7/10

Alaves Form Analysis

Trending

Alaves have found their rhythm at the perfect time, winning three of five recent matches...

Alaves have found their rhythm at the perfect time, winning three of five recent matches including a stunning 1-0 home victory over champions Barcelona. Their away form has improved dramatically with wins at Oviedo and a thrilling 4-3 victory at Celta Vigo. The attacking output remains modest at 1.16 goals per game, but they've shown resilience in crucial moments. Home advantage has been significant with seven wins from 18 matches at Estadio Mendizorrotza. The suspension of F. Garces and injury to J. Pacheco present selection challenges, but squad depth has improved throughout the campaign.

Rayo Vallecano

10 of 15 in La Liga

W
D
D
W
W
W
D
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
D

Form Rating

6/10

Rayo Vallecano Form Analysis

Analysis

Rayo Vallecano's season has been defined by their remarkable Conference League run, reaching the final...

Rayo Vallecano's season has been defined by their remarkable Conference League run, reaching the final against Crystal Palace. Recent league form shows inconsistency with just one win in five matches, though the 2-0 victory over Villarreal demonstrated their quality. Away form remains their Achilles heel with only four wins in 18 road trips, averaging just 1.0 goals per game on their travels. Multiple injury concerns compound their problems, with I. Palazon suspended and key players like I. Akhomach and Luiz Felipe sidelined. The upcoming European final may affect focus and team selection priorities.

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Alaves11-10-1629.7%
Rayo Vallecano11-14-1229.7%
Goals Scored
Alaves43
Rayo Vallecano39
Goals Conceded
Alaves54
Rayo Vallecano43

shieldAlaves2

  • F. Garces profile photo

    F. Garces

    Suspended
    Out
  • J. Pacheco profile photo

    J. Pacheco

    Ankle Injury
    Out
F. GarcesAlaves
J. PachecoAlaves

shieldRayo Vallecano6

  • Luiz Felipe profile photo

    Luiz Felipe

    Hamstring Injury
    Out
  • U. Lopez profile photo

    U. Lopez

    Yellow Cards
    Out
  • A. Garcia profile photo

    A. Garcia

    Injury
    Questionable
  • I. Palazon profile photo

    I. Palazon

    Red Card
    Out
  • I. Akhomach profile photo

    I. Akhomach

    Muscle Injury
    Out
Luiz FelipeRayo Vallecano
U. LopezRayo Vallecano
A. GarciaRayo Vallecano
I. PalazonRayo Vallecano
I. AkhomachRayo Vallecano
D. MendezRayo Vallecano

Showing 1-5 of 6 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

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Strong Pick

Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid

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AI: Atletico Madrid63%
Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Unfavorable

Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Alaves-11
Rayo Vallecano-4

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Analysis

Why are Alaves favored despite being six places lower in the table?

Alaves' recent form has been exceptional with three wins in five matches, including a stunning victory over Barcelona. Their head-to-head dominance against Rayo (three wins from four recent meetings) and strong home record in this fixture outweigh the league position gap. Rayo's poor away form (4 wins in 18) and multiple injury concerns further justify the market assessment favoring the hosts.

How might Rayo's Conference League final affect this match?

Rayo face Crystal Palace in the Conference League final on May 27th, just four days after this fixture. The coaching staff may prioritize key players' fitness and rotate the squad to avoid injuries before their biggest match in years. This potential distraction and squad rotation could significantly impact their performance and motivation for league points against Alaves.

What alternative bets offer the best value for this match?

Draw No Bet on Alaves provides excellent value, offering protection against the draw while capitalizing on their H2H dominance. Under 2.5 Goals is equally attractive given both teams' low-scoring nature (2.21 combined goals per game) and recent meetings averaging under two goals. Both markets suit the tactical approach and playing styles of these defensively-minded teams.

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