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Estadio Mendizorrotza
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AI Predicted Winner
Alaves
41%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Alaves✦ AI Pick | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Betano | |||
Dafabet | |||
| Best Odds |
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This Alaves vs Osasuna prediction looks tight on paper, but Alaves enter as deserved favorites after an unbeaten start to the La Liga campaign. Sitting second with seven points from three games, they've won twice and drawn once, conceding just once all season.
Osasuna have also started well, unbeaten in two with a win over Celta Vigo and a goalless draw against Levante, but their away sample is limited to a single fixture. Alaves' defensive record stands out — two clean sheets in three games and only one goal conceded — while their attack has clicked for five goals in the same span.
The suspension of Facundo Garces is a mild concern for Alaves' backline, but the squad's overall form and home comfort (two wins from two at Mendizorrotza) outweigh that setback. Osasuna's hamstring injury to Valentin Rosier also disrupts their defensive options ahead of a tricky trip.
With both sides drawing frequently this season and combined goals per game sitting around 2.67, a cagey, competitive contest seems likely. Still, Alaves' superior points-per-game and defensive solidity make them the value pick, and the market agrees — installing them as clear favorites at close to 42% implied probability. Expect Alaves to edge this one, though not comfortably.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Alaves and Osasuna have met four times since 2024, with Osasuna winning twice, Alaves once, and one draw. Their most...
Alaves and Osasuna have met four times since 2024, with Osasuna winning twice, Alaves once, and one draw. Their most recent meeting in April 2026 ended level at 2-2, while Osasuna thrashed Alaves 3-0 in December 2025. The head-to-head has swung both ways, but Osasuna has shown they can hurt Alaves defensively when clicking, making this a closer contest than the league table alone suggests.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
11 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6.7/10
Alaves are unbeaten through three league games, winning twice and drawing once while conceding just...
Alaves are unbeaten through three league games, winning twice and drawing once while conceding just a single goal. Their defense has been outstanding, posting two clean sheets, including a comfortable win over Villarreal last time out. At home, they've won both fixtures played this season, scoring four times. The main concern is the suspension of defender Facundo Garces, which could test their backup options at the back. Their balance of solid defending and clinical finishing—1.67 goals scored per game—makes them a tough side to break down, and home advantage at Mendizorrotza adds further weight behind their favorite tag heading into this fixture.
10 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
4/10
Osasuna have made a solid, if unspectacular, start, drawing with Levante and beating Celta Vigo...
Osasuna have made a solid, if unspectacular, start, drawing with Levante and beating Celta Vigo away from home. Their away form remains largely untested this season with just one match played, though that ended in a win. Defensively they've been reasonably tight, conceding only once in two games, but they also failed to score in their draw with Levante. Losing Valentin Rosier to a hamstring injury is a blow defensively ahead of a difficult trip to Vitoria-Gasteiz. Osasuna will need a more clinical edge in attack, averaging just one goal per game, to trouble an in-form Alaves side on home turf.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Alaves vs Osasuna - Match Analysis
Alaves sit second in La Liga with seven points from three games, boasting a stellar defensive record of just one goal conceded and two clean sheets. Their unbeaten home form, combined with a stronger points-per-game average than Osasuna, underpins the bookmakers' favoritism at around 41.5% implied probability. Osasuna remain competitive but have played only one away game this season, adding uncertainty to their travel form.
Osasuna are unbeaten in two league games and have shown defensive resilience, conceding just once. Their head-to-head record against Alaves is actually favorable over the last two years, including a 3-0 away win in December 2025. If they replicate that defensive discipline and catch Alaves without Garces at the back, an upset or at least a draw is plausible.
Beyond the straight match winner, Under 2.5 Goals looks appealing given both teams' tight defensive numbers this season. Draw No Bet: Alaves is another smart option, hedging against the notably high combined draw rate of 41.6% while still backing the stronger side. These markets offer better risk-adjusted value than a straight home win bet alone.
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