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Estadio Mendizorrotza
Draw
Our Alaves vs Osasuna prediction centers on a closely contested La Liga preview where the visitors hold a slight edge. Osasuna sits 6 places higher in the table (10th vs 16th) with superior points per game (1.28 vs 1.07), making them marginal favorites despite playing away. The bookmaker consensus reflects this tight matchup with home win at 38.2%, draw at 30.4%, and away win at 31.4%. Both teams have struggled for consistency this season, with Alaves winning just five of 14 home matches while Osasuna has been dreadful away from home with only two wins in 15 road games. Recent form favors neither side significantly, though Osasuna's 1-0 win over Girona last time out ended a poor run. Key injuries impact both squads, with Alaves missing suspended duo F. Garces and D. Suarez, while Osasuna travels without injured defender I. Benito. The low combined goals per game (2.2) suggests a tight affair. Our expert picks lean toward the away win based on superior league position and marginally better underlying metrics, though this represents excellent value as free tips given the narrow margins between these mid-table sides.
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2025/2026 Season
Alaves vs Osasuna - Match Analysis
While Osasuna has won just 2 of 15 away matches, their overall superiority shines through in league position (10th vs 16th) and points per game (1.28 vs 1.07). Their head-to-head dominance over Alaves, including a 3-0 win in December, demonstrates they match up well against this opponent. The bookmakers recognize that league position often trumps venue-specific form in individual matchups.
Under 2.5 Goals offers excellent value at around 65% confidence given both teams' low scoring averages (2.2 combined goals per game). Draw No Bet on Osasuna removes the draw risk while backing the superior team. Both Teams to Score 'No' appeals given Alaves' home scoring struggles and their recent failure to find the net against Osasuna in head-to-head encounters.
Alaves faces the bigger disruption with F. Garces and D. Suarez suspended, removing two regular starters from their lineup. L. Boye's foot injury adds further uncertainty to their defensive setup. Osasuna only loses I. Benito to a knee injury, giving them a cleaner bill of health. These absences tilt the balance further toward the visitors, who already held the statistical advantage entering this fixture.
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Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Recent head-to-head encounters heavily favor Osasuna, who demolished Alaves 3-0 in their last meeting at El Sadar in December 2025....
Recent head-to-head encounters heavily favor Osasuna, who demolished Alaves 3-0 in their last meeting at El Sadar in December 2025. Over the past two years in competitive fixtures, Osasuna has won twice and drawn once against Alaves, with the hosts managing just one victory in a friendly. The pattern shows Osasuna's dominance at home while Alaves has struggled to break down their Basque neighbors, failing to score in two of the three recent league encounters.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
13 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
4/10
Alaves enters this match in inconsistent form, having won just two of their last ten...
Alaves enters this match in inconsistent form, having won just two of their last ten league matches. Their recent 4-3 victory at Celta Vigo was a rare bright spot in an otherwise disappointing campaign. At home, they've been particularly vulnerable with only five wins from 14 matches at Estadio Mendizorrotza. The team averages just 1.03 goals per game while conceding 1.41, highlighting both attacking struggles and defensive frailties. Key suspensions to F. Garces and D. Suarez weaken their options, while L. Boye remains doubtful with a foot injury. Their relegation battle positioning (16th, 31 points) adds pressure, sitting just four points above the drop zone.
13 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6/10
Osasuna's away form has been their Achilles heel this season, managing only two wins in...
Osasuna's away form has been their Achilles heel this season, managing only two wins in 15 road trips. However, their overall campaign has been more stable than Alaves, sitting comfortably in 10th place with 37 points. Recent form shows mixed results with a crucial 1-0 home win over Girona following defeats to Real Sociedad and Valencia. They average 1.17 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game, marginally better than their hosts. The loss of defender I. Benito to knee injury is their main concern. Their superior league position reflects better consistency throughout the season, though translating home form to away venues remains their biggest challenge in this fixture.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
