AI vs Market Probabilities

• Alaves
  55%vs 43%+12%
• Draw
  25%vs 33%-8%
• Getafe
  20%vs 25%-5%

Analysis

Our AI model favors Alaves based on superior home form and current momentum. The probability analysis shows Alaves' recent upturn coinciding with Getafe's decline, particularly away from home. Getafe's woeful road record of two wins from eleven matches contrasts starkly with Alaves' solid home foundation. The injury to Getafe's leading scorer B. Mayoral significantly impacts their already limited attacking threat. Expected value calculations favor the home win given the form differential and venue advantage.

Value Bets Comparison Table

Recommendations

The primary value bet lies in backing Alaves to win, offering positive expected value given their recent form surge and Getafe's away struggles. Smart bet analysis suggests the home win represents excellent value, considering Getafe's inability to score consistently on the road. Alternative betting tips include exploring the under 2.5 goals market, given both teams' recent low-scoring encounters and Getafe's attacking limitations without Mayoral. The Draw No Bet market on Alaves provides insurance against a potential stalemate while maintaining upside potential.

Half-Time Result Prediction

• Alaves

  Likely

• Draw

  Common

• Getafe

  Possible

Other Markets

• Draw No Bet
• Asian Handicap
• First Goal Time
• Corners O/U

Analysis

For alternative markets, consider Under 2.5 Goals given Getafe's scoring struggles away from home and both teams' recent defensive improvements. The Asian Handicap market offers Alaves -0.5 as a hedge bet strategy, providing better odds than the straight win while covering the draw scenario. Both Teams to Score 'No' presents value given Getafe's poor away attacking record.