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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
48%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Lillestrom | Draw✦ AI Pick | Molde |
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Lillestrom vs Molde prediction: this Eliteserien clash sees two mid-table sides with contrasting momentum collide. Lillestrom sit sixth on 32 points, their home form patchy at five wins from ten, while Molde arrive fourth on 36 points with the division's sharper attack.
Molde have been scoring at nearly 2.1 goals per game, buoyed by a five-goal rout of Ham-Kam and a four-goal haul against Valerenga in recent weeks, even though a home loss to Aalesund interrupted their rhythm. Lillestrom's output has been shakier — a heavy 4-1 home defeat to Fredrikstad and a 3-0 loss at Viking expose defensive fragility, though a 5-1 cup win over Baerum shows they can score when confidence is high.
Injuries bite harder for Lillestrom, who are missing several squad players including a key defensive contributor, while Molde's absentees look more peripheral. Bookmakers make Molde clear favorites at 44.3% versus 31.6% for the hosts, and the underlying numbers back that: Molde's points-per-game and goal difference both outstrip Lillestrom's by a healthy margin.
Expect goals at both ends given the attacking quality on show and Lillestrom's leaky defense. The most likely outcome is a narrow away win, with Molde's superior firepower proving decisive, though Lillestrom's home crowd and recent flashes of form keep this from being a one-sided certainty.
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2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The sole meeting within the last two years came in April 2026, when Molde won 1-0 at home against Lillestrom....
The sole meeting within the last two years came in April 2026, when Molde won 1-0 at home against Lillestrom. Looking slightly further back, Molde have dominated this fixture, winning the majority of recent encounters regardless of venue, including a 3-0 and a 4-0 victory. Lillestrom's only home win in this sample came back in 2023. The pattern strongly favors Molde, even accounting for home advantage swinging to Lillestrom this time.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsEliteserien matches highlighted
10 of 15 in Eliteserien
Form Rating
5.3/10
Lillestrom's season has been inconsistent, sitting sixth with a negative goal difference and only five...
Lillestrom's season has been inconsistent, sitting sixth with a negative goal difference and only five wins from ten home matches. Recent results have swung wildly — a 2-0 win over Valerenga and 2-1 away win at Brann were followed by a damaging 4-1 home loss to Fredrikstad and a 3-0 defeat to Viking. Defensive solidity is the main concern, conceding 1.38 goals per game, and squad depth is stretched with multiple players missing through injury. Their attack has flattered to deceive, often failing to score in tight matches. A cup romp over lower-league opposition offered confidence, but Eliteserien form remains shaky heading into this fixture.
10 of 15 in Eliteserien
Form Rating
6/10
Molde arrive in better shape, fourth in the table with the division's second-best goal difference...
Molde arrive in better shape, fourth in the table with the division's second-best goal difference at plus-12. Their attack has been electric, scoring 2.1 goals per game and recently putting five past both Ham-Kam and in a cup tie, plus four against Valerenga. A 2-1 home defeat to Aalesund was a blip rather than a trend. Molde do have a lengthy injury list, though most absences appear to affect squad depth rather than first-choice regulars. With 22 days of rest since their last Eliteserien fixture, fatigue is not a concern, and their scoring form makes them a threat in every match they play.
Showing 1-5 of 6 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Lillestrom vs Molde - Match Analysis
Molde's underlying numbers are simply stronger — they sit two places higher, boast a plus-12 goal difference compared to Lillestrom's minus-1, and score over two goals per game. Lillestrom's home record this season is only modest at five wins from ten, and recent heavy defeats to Fredrikstad and Viking highlight defensive issues that Molde's in-form attack could exploit.
Over 2.5 Goals looks like strong value given both teams' attacking tendencies and leaky defenses, with combined goals per game sitting above 3.4. For those wanting safety on the match winner, Draw No Bet: Molde protects against a shock draw while still capturing the form favorite. Both Teams to Score is also worth considering given recent scoring patterns from both sides.
It's possible — Lillestrom have shown flashes of quality, including recent league wins over Brann and Valerenga, and home advantage counts for something in Eliteserien. However, their inconsistency and injury list make an upset a tougher proposition against a Molde side that has scored freely in recent weeks and sits comfortably ahead in the table.
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