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Aalesund
Aalesund14th in Eliteserien (4-9-9)
VS
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF9th in Eliteserien (7-7-8)

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Sunday, Oct 11, 2026 · --:--

Color Line Stadion

Final
Aalesund
2–4
Sarpsborg 08 FF

Sarpsborg 08 FF won

Our prediction was wrong
✗

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Aalesund host Sarpsborg 08 in an Eliteserien clash that looks tightly balanced on paper, with little separating the two sides in points-per-game terms heading into this fixture. Neither club arrives with a clear edge in current form, and no confirmed injuries, suspensions or tactical changes have emerged to tilt the picture in either direction.

Bookmaker odds reflect this balance, pricing all three outcomes closely rather than installing a clear favorite. That narrow spread typically signals a match decided by small margins, game management, and situational factors rather than a gap in quality between the squads. Aalesund's home platform offers a slight lift, but Sarpsborg's away record this season has been competitive enough to cancel out much of that advantage.

Given the lack of fresh, match-specific intelligence beyond outdated August results already baked into the statistical model, the data points toward a cagey, low-differential contest. Both sides have shown an ability to frustrate opponents defensively while lacking a standout attacking spark to consistently break teams down, reinforcing the case for a stalemate.

For bettors, the draw stands out as the value angle here, backed by the tightest implied probabilities across all outcomes and a genuine absence of a dominant side. With confidence levels low due to limited new information, this looks like a spot to favor the split-points outcome over committing to either side winning outright.

Key Factors

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Aalesund (2)Draws (1)Sarpsborg 08 FF (7)
Oct 22, 23
(H)Aalesund3 - 2Sarpsborg 08 FF(A)
H
May 29, 23
(H)Sarpsborg 08 FF3 - 1Aalesund(A)
H
Sep 11, 22
(H)Aalesund1 - 3Sarpsborg 08 FF(A)
A
May 22, 22
(H)Sarpsborg 08 FF1 - 2Aalesund(A)
A
Sep 13, 20
(H)Aalesund0 - 1Sarpsborg 08 FF(A)
A
Aug 2, 20
(H)Sarpsborg 08 FF4 - 0Aalesund(A)
H
Nov 19, 17
(H)Sarpsborg 08 FF1 - 0Aalesund(A)
H
Apr 5, 17
(H)Aalesund1 - 3Sarpsborg 08 FF(A)
A
Aug 26, 16
(H)Aalesund2 - 2Sarpsborg 08 FF(A)
D
May 12, 16
(H)Sarpsborg 08 FF1 - 0Aalesund(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent meetings between these sides predate the two-year cutoff, with the last encounter coming in October 2023 when Aalesund won...

Recent meetings between these sides predate the two-year cutoff, with the last encounter coming in October 2023 when Aalesund won 3-2 at home. Over the last decade Sarpsborg have generally had the upper hand on the road, winning several away fixtures at Color Line Stadion. With no head-to-head data from the past two years, this preview leans on current form and underlying statistics rather than historical patterns between these two clubs.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsEliteserien matches highlighted

Aalesund

12 of 15 in Eliteserien

W
W
L
W
L
W
D
D
L
D
L
D
W
D
D

Form Rating

5.3/10

Aalesund Form Analysis

Trending

Aalesund have struggled for consistency, winning just four of 21 league games and sitting in...

Aalesund have struggled for consistency, winning just four of 21 league games and sitting in the relegation zone on 21 points. Their home form is marginally better than their away record, with two wins, six draws and three losses from 11 matches at Color Line Stadion. Defensively they've been porous, conceding 2.19 goals per game and keeping only one clean sheet all season. Several players are sidelined through injury, thinning their squad options. Despite the poor underlying numbers, Aalesund have shown they can score goals in bunches, netting 33 times this season, and their recent 2-1 win over Molde suggests some fight remains heading into this fixture.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

11 of 15 in Eliteserien

W
L
D
D
D
W
L
L
D
W
D
W
L
D
W

Form Rating

5.3/10

Sarpsborg 08 FF Form Analysis

Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF sit comfortably mid-table in 9th with 25 points from 21 games, boasting...

Sarpsborg 08 FF sit comfortably mid-table in 9th with 25 points from 21 games, boasting a tighter defensive record of 1.38 goals conceded per game and five clean sheets. Their away form is their weak spot, however, with just two wins from 11 road trips and five losses. Recent form has been scrappy — a mix of draws and defeats including a 3-1 loss to KFUM Oslo — though a cup win over Follo offers some momentum. Two injury absences limit squad depth, but Sarpsborg's defensive organization gives them a platform to compete even without firing offensively, having scored only 24 goals all season.

Season Overview

2026 Season

Record
Aalesund4-9-819.0%
Sarpsborg 08 FF6-7-828.6%
Goals Scored
Aalesund33
Sarpsborg 08 FF24
Goals Conceded
Aalesund46
Sarpsborg 08 FF29

shieldAalesund8

  • J. Seehusen profile photo

    J. Seehusen

    Injury
    Out
  • P. Ngongo profile photo

    P. Ngongo

    Surgery
    Out
  • M. Andresen profile photo

    M. Andresen

    Yellow Cards
    Out
  • S. Haram profile photo

    S. Haram

    Elbow Injury
    Out
  • I. Djantou profile photo

    I. Djantou

    Inactive
    Out
J. SeehusenAalesund
P. NgongoAalesund
M. AndresenAalesund
S. HaramAalesund
I. DjantouAalesund
H. HammerAalesund
M. KristensenAalesund
A. KjelsenAalesund

Showing 1-5 of 8 injuries

shieldSarpsborg 08 FF2

  • F. Carstensen profile photo

    F. Carstensen

    Injury
    Out
  • M. Opoku profile photo

    M. Opoku

    Ankle Injury
    Out
F. CarstensenSarpsborg 08 FF
M. OpokuSarpsborg 08 FF

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

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All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

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High Value

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Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Unfavorable

Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Aalesund-13
Sarpsborg 08 FF-5

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF - Match Analysis

Why is this Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF match considered a close contest?

Bookmaker odds have Aalesund at 37.3% and Sarpsborg at 37.6%, essentially a coin flip. Aalesund's home advantage offsets Sarpsborg's better points-per-game and defensive record. With a combined draw rate of 38.1% between these sides' seasons, there's no standout favorite, making this one of the more unpredictable fixtures on the Eliteserien card this week.

What alternative bets should I consider for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?

Over 2.5 Goals stands out given the 2.71 combined goals per game average and both teams' defensive issues. Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg offers protection against the drawn outcome while capturing their slight statistical edge. Both Teams to Score is another strong alternative market, as both sides have shown vulnerability at the back this season.

What's at stake for Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in this match?

Aalesund sit 14th in the relegation zone and desperately need points to climb away from danger, making this a must-win scenario at home. Sarpsborg, sitting comfortably in 9th, have less pressure but a win would push them closer to mid-table security and open a larger cushion over the sides below them.

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