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Pride Park
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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
40.3%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Derby | Draw✦ AI Pick | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
PinnacleBest Odds | |||
Bet365 | |||
1xBet | |||
| Best Odds |
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Derby vs Wrexham prediction: a bottom-half Championship clash at Pride Park between two sides short on confidence. Derby sit 22nd with just five points from eight games, winless in their last four league outings and sitting deep in the relegation zone. Wrexham, despite sitting 14th, arrive in better shape with a 1.25 points-per-game average and four draws in their last six, though a damaging 6-0 defeat to West Ham exposed defensive frailties on the road.
Derby's home form is particularly alarming — no wins in four at Pride Park this season, scoring just three goals in those matches. A lengthy injury list including multiple defenders compounds the problem. Wrexham's away record is more respectable, with a win, two draws and one loss, and they've only failed to score twice all season.
Bookmakers rate this as a tight contest, with Wrexham marginally favored despite the position gap suggesting a clearer away edge. The combined draw rate near 38% and modest goal output from both sides point toward a cagey, low-scoring affair.
Expect Wrexham to edge this via their superior recent form and away resilience, but a draw remains a live outcome given Derby's stubbornness at home in tight matches. This is a match where value likely sits with the draw or a narrow away win rather than backing Derby outright given their current malaise.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 2 head-to-head matchups
These sides have met twice since 2025, with Wrexham unbeaten in both. Wrexham won 2-1 away at Pride Park in...
These sides have met twice since 2025, with Wrexham unbeaten in both. Wrexham won 2-1 away at Pride Park in January 2026, and the sides shared a 1-1 draw at the Racecourse Ground in September 2025. The pattern suggests Wrexham's travel record against Derby is solid, and Derby have struggled to find the net in both recent meetings, scoring just once in two games against their visitors.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsChampionship matches highlighted
8 of 15 in Championship
Form Rating
3/10
Derby's season has unraveled quickly — just one win in eight league games, sitting 22nd...
Derby's season has unraveled quickly — just one win in eight league games, sitting 22nd with a minus-seven goal difference. Four defeats and a draw in their last five have them deep in relegation trouble, and the home form is especially concerning with no wins in four at Pride Park, scoring only three goals in that span. A lengthy injury list hits several defensive positions, including long-term absences that have destabilized the back line. With just 0.88 goals scored per game, their attack has struggled to create meaningful chances, and this fixture arrives as a chance to arrest the slide against a beatable but in-form visitor.
9 of 15 in Championship
Form Rating
4.7/10
Wrexham have been steady rather than spectacular, picking up four draws and two wins across...
Wrexham have been steady rather than spectacular, picking up four draws and two wins across their last six league matches. Their 1.25 points-per-game average ranks comfortably above Derby's, and they've kept two clean sheets in eight outings. The 6-0 loss to West Ham was a damaging blip, but they bounced back with a win over Southampton most recently. Multiple injuries, including to key defensive and midfield options, test their depth, but their away form — one win, two draws, one loss — shows resilience on the road. Goals have been shared fairly evenly, with 1.12 scored per game suggesting enough quality to trouble a leaky Derby defense.
Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Derby vs Wrexham - Match Analysis
Despite Wrexham sitting eight places higher in the table, the odds are tightly bunched because Derby's home desperation and Wrexham's recent defensive lapses (including a 6-0 loss) create real uncertainty. Derby's abysmal home form is balanced by Wrexham's inconsistent away form, making this a genuine toss-up rather than a clear favorite situation, reflected in the near-equal market probabilities across all three outcomes.
Double Chance: Wrexham or Draw offers protection against an upset while still capturing the away team's form edge. Under 2.5 Goals is another strong option given both teams' modest scoring rates and Derby's struggles in front of goal. Both markets provide better risk-adjusted value than backing either side outright to win given how tightly contested this fixture projects to be.
Wrexham's away form, while decent, includes just one win in four games, and their recent 6-0 collapse against West Ham shows defensive vulnerability that Derby could exploit despite their poor form. Derby's stubbornness at home in recent head-to-head meetings and their need for points to climb off the bottom could make this a tougher away test than the table suggests.
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