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Pride Park
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AI Predicted Winner
Stoke City
41%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Derby | Draw | Stoke City✦ AI Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Best Odds |
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Derby vs Stoke City prediction: Pride Park hosts a Championship clash between a side fighting relegation and a mid-table outfit chasing the play-offs. Derby sit 23rd on just six points from ten games, winning only once all season, while Stoke City are eighth on 16 points having won five of their last ten.
Derby's home form has been dismal — no wins in five at Pride Park, with two draws and three losses — and they've shipped 19 goals in ten matches overall. Stoke arrive on the back of a narrow loss to Middlesbrough but had won three of their previous four before that, with a solid away record of two wins, one draw and two losses this season.
Derby's defensive injury list is a major concern, with multiple missing fixtures including key defenders, compounding an already leaky backline. Stoke also have absentees but their squad depth looks less affected.
Despite Derby's poor campaign, the bookmaker odds are tighter than the table suggests, with Derby favored narrowly at home. Still, the underlying data — points per game, goals conceded, and current form — favors Stoke City claiming at least a point. Expect goals at both ends given Derby's leaky defense and Stoke's attacking output, with Stoke City edging this as the smarter pick over Derby at home.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
These sides have met three times in the past two years, with Derby winning 2-0 at home in April 2026,...
These sides have met three times in the past two years, with Derby winning 2-0 at home in April 2026, Stoke winning 3-1 at home in August 2025, and a goalless draw at Pride Park in May 2025. The recent head-to-head is fairly even, but Stoke have shown they can win comfortably away from home, which is a relevant signal given Derby's current defensive struggles at Pride Park this season.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsChampionship matches highlighted
10 of 15 in Championship
Form Rating
2.7/10
Derby's season has been miserable, sitting bottom of the table with just one win from...
Derby's season has been miserable, sitting bottom of the table with just one win from ten league games and a goal difference of minus ten. Their recent form shows four losses and two draws in six matches, including a heavy 4-1 defeat to QPR last time out. At home they've managed zero wins from five, scoring just six and conceding nine. The injury list is extensive, hitting the defense particularly hard with multiple long-term absentees, which has directly contributed to conceding 19 goals in ten games. With confidence low and options limited, Derby look vulnerable against any side with attacking intent.
10 of 15 in Championship
Form Rating
5.7/10
Stoke City have been solid, sitting eighth with 16 points and firmly in play-off contention....
Stoke City have been solid, sitting eighth with 16 points and firmly in play-off contention. Their recent form includes four wins in six, though they were beaten 3-2 by Middlesbrough in their last outing. Away from home they've won two of five, scoring seven and conceding ten, showing they can be open defensively but reliably find the net. Goals have come from multiple sources this season, with 17 scored in ten games. A few squad absences are present but none appear central to their system, and Stoke's balance of goals scored and conceded suggests they'll fancy exploiting Derby's defensive frailties on the road.
Showing 1-5 of 8 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Derby vs Stoke City - Match Analysis
Derby's home odds look inflated given they haven't won at Pride Park all season and sit bottom of the table with a point-per-game rate under half of Stoke's. Stoke have won five of ten games this season and arrive with a far healthier goal difference. The underlying numbers suggest Stoke's 2.69 odds offer better expected value than backing a struggling Derby side at home.
Over 2.5 Goals looks appealing given Derby's leaky defense (1.9 conceded per game) and Stoke's attacking threat (1.7 scored per game). Double Chance: Stoke City or Draw offers protection against any home-field upset while still capturing Stoke's form advantage. Draw No Bet: Stoke City is another solid alternative for those wanting insurance against a surprise Derby point.
Derby are fighting for survival, sitting 23rd and already facing relegation form with just six points from ten matches — every game now carries real pressure. Stoke City, by contrast, are building a play-off push from eighth place and a win here would strengthen their push toward the top six. The motivational gap favors Stoke, who have far more to gain from a positive result.
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