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Turf Moor
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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
38.4%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Burnley | Draw✦ AI Pick | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
Pinnacle | |||
William Hill | |||
BetfairBest Odds | |||
| Best Odds |
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Burnley vs Derby prediction: this Championship clash at Turf Moor pits two of the division's bottom-four sides against each other, both desperate for a first meaningful run of form this season. Burnley sit 24th with just three points from seven games, winless in six league outings and shipping goals at an alarming rate. Derby are marginally better off in 22nd but have lost four of their last six and managed only one win in that stretch.
Neither side has found consistency in front of goal or at the back. Burnley have failed to keep a clean sheet all season, while Derby have been shut out in three of their six matches, struggling badly for attacking output on the road.
Derby's injury list is a genuine concern, with several first-team players ruled out through injury, further weakening an already misfiring attack. Burnley's home form (two draws, one loss) offers slight reassurance but no evidence of a turnaround.
Given the closely matched points-per-game and both teams' defensive fragility, this looks like a nervy, low-quality contest. Expect a tight affair with goals at both ends a real possibility, but with home advantage and a marginal edge in recent underlying numbers, Burnley are given a slight nod, though a draw remains a highly plausible outcome given how evenly matched these struggling sides are on paper.
Moderate
Moderate
Even
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The last two meetings between these sides, in April 2025 and December 2024, both ended goalless, continuing a pattern of...
The last two meetings between these sides, in April 2025 and December 2024, both ended goalless, continuing a pattern of tight, low-scoring Championship encounters. Burnley also edged a League Cup tie 2-1 in August 2025. Across recent history, draws have been a recurring theme whenever these two meet, and with both sides currently misfiring in front of goal, another cagey, low-scoring affair looks entirely plausible this weekend.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsChampionship matches highlighted
7 of 15 in Championship
Form Rating
2.3/10
Burnley remain winless in six league matches, drawing three and losing three, and sit bottom-but-one...
Burnley remain winless in six league matches, drawing three and losing three, and sit bottom-but-one of the Championship with just three points. Their defense has been the main issue, conceding 13 goals in six games and failing to register a single clean sheet all season. Attacking returns have also been modest at 1.17 goals per game. At home specifically they've drawn twice and lost once from three outings, scoring only three goals. With confidence low and the squad short on cutting edge, Burnley will need a much-improved defensive display to end this poor run against fellow strugglers Derby.
8 of 15 in Championship
Form Rating
2.7/10
Derby have lost four of their last six league games, with just one win and...
Derby have lost four of their last six league games, with just one win and one draw, leaving them 22nd on four points. Their away form is particularly worrying, one win but two losses from three trips, scoring just three goals on the road. Multiple injury absences have hit an already thin squad, stripping depth from defense and attack alike. Derby have failed to score in three of their six league matches this season, a clear sign of their offensive struggles. Turning this trip to Turf Moor into anything more than a point will be a tough ask given their current malaise.
No reported injuries
Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Burnley vs Derby - Match Analysis
Both teams are mired in the Championship's bottom four with almost identical points-per-game figures (0.43 vs 0.57) and similarly poor recent form. Burnley are winless in six league games while Derby have lost four of their last six. Neither side has shown attacking or defensive consistency, making this one of the most unpredictable fixtures on the weekend card, with a draw a very live outcome.
Given both teams' struggles in front of goal, Under 2.5 Goals is an appealing alternative market, supported by a combined goals-per-game average of just 2.0. Draw No Bet: Burnley is another sensible option, offering protection against a stalemate while still leaning on marginal home advantage. Both markets suit this cagey, low-confidence matchup better than a straight moneyline bet.
Derby have multiple first-team players sidelined through injury, further depleting a squad that's already scored just five goals in six league games. With their attacking options already limited, missing key personnel makes it even harder for Derby to trouble Burnley's defense, reinforcing the case for a low-scoring, tightly contested match at Turf Moor.
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