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Turf Moor
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AI Predicted Winner
Burnley
43%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Burnley✦ AI Pick | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
DafabetBest Odds | |||
Marathonbet | |||
Betano | |||
| Best Odds |
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Burnley vs Bristol City prediction: this Championship clash at Turf Moor pits a struggling home side against an away team finding some early rhythm. Burnley have lost two of their opening three league games, shipping nine goals in that span, including a heavy defeat at Norwich and a loss to West Brom.
Bristol City arrive in better shape, winning their last two matches against Preston and Portsmouth while showing more defensive discipline. Their away form remains unproven this season with just one game on the road, a draw, but the momentum is clearly with the visitors.
Burnley's home record offers little reassurance either, with just a single draw from their lone home fixture so far. Injury absences including Josh Cullen and Jaidon Beyer add further concern to an already leaky defense conceding three goals per game.
Bookmakers still install Burnley as favorites at 51.7%, reflecting Turf Moor's home advantage and Bristol City's own inconsistencies, but the gap is narrower than the odds suggest given Burnley's dismal recent form. Expect goals at both ends given the combined 2.66 goals per game average, with a draw or narrow away win presenting realistic outcomes despite the market lean toward the hosts. Burnley's home win remains the most probable single outcome, but this is far from a lock given their current defensive fragility.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Burnley have dominated this fixture historically, including a 1-0 win in March 2025 and another 1-0 victory in the reverse...
Burnley have dominated this fixture historically, including a 1-0 win in March 2025 and another 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture in November 2024. Both recent meetings were tight, low-scoring affairs decided by a single goal. Bristol City haven't beaten Burnley in any of the last four encounters dating back to 2022, a pattern that favors the hosts psychologically even amid their current poor form.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsChampionship matches highlighted
3 of 15 in Championship
Form Rating
2.3/10
Burnley have won none of their last three Championship matches, drawing one and losing two...
Burnley have won none of their last three Championship matches, drawing one and losing two while conceding nine goals in the process. The defense has been the major concern, failing to keep a clean sheet all season and shipping three goals per game on average. Injuries have compounded issues, with Josh Cullen, Jaidon Beyer, and Ashley Barnes all missing through injury, thinning options in midfield and attack. Burnley managed just a single point from their home Premier League-to-Championship transition opener. Attacking output has been modest at 1.33 goals per game, meaning goals are being conceded faster than they're scored — a worrying trend against a Bristol City side finding form.
7 of 15 in Championship
Form Rating
5/10
Bristol City head into this match unbeaten in two, having beaten Portsmouth and Preston in...
Bristol City head into this match unbeaten in two, having beaten Portsmouth and Preston in their last two outings while scoring seven goals across those matches combined. Their points-per-game average of 1.33 is well clear of Burnley's 0.33, reflecting a much healthier start to the campaign. Defensively they've conceded 1.67 goals per game, tighter than their hosts but not watertight, having failed to keep a clean sheet in three matches. Injury concerns are limited to Luke McNally and Emmanuel Adebayo. Away form is unproven with only one match played on the road, a draw against Birmingham, but the attacking confidence gained from back-to-back wins could translate well on the road at Turf Moor.
Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Burnley vs Bristol City - Match Analysis
Burnley's poor home form and defensive struggles, conceding three goals per game, offset their bookmaker favoritism. Bristol City's momentum from consecutive wins makes them competitive visitors despite limited away experience this season. With a 33.3% combined draw rate and both teams evenly matched on underlying numbers once home advantage is discounted, a stalemate is a genuine possibility here.
Burnley have lost two of three league games this season, conceding nine goals with zero clean sheets. Key injuries to Josh Cullen, Jaidon Beyer, and Ashley Barnes weaken their squad depth further. Bristol City, in contrast, arrive full of confidence following back-to-back victories, making Burnley's short odds appear riskier than the market suggests given their actual defensive vulnerabilities.
Over 2.5 Goals looks like the standout alternative market given both sides' leaky defenses and the 2.66 combined goals per game average this season. Draw No Bet: Burnley offers a safer path to backing the home advantage without the draw risk. Both markets provide better expected value than the straight home win given Burnley's shaky recent form.
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