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Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen13th in Bundesliga (6-7-12)
VS
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 0515th in Bundesliga (5-9-11)

Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05

Sunday, Mar 15, 2026 · --:--

Weserstadion

Final
Werder Bremen
0–2
FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction highlights a closely contested Bundesliga preview between two mid-table sides separated by just two league positions. Bremen sits 13th with 25 points while Mainz occupies 15th with 24 points, making this a crucial six-pointer for both teams' mid-table ambitions. The bookmaker consensus favors Bremen at 43.8% probability, reflecting their home advantage at the Weserstadion and marginally superior league position. Both teams have struggled defensively this season, conceding 45 and 41 goals respectively, while their attacking outputs remain nearly identical at 1.16 goals per game. Bremen's recent form shows promise with back-to-back wins, including an impressive 4-1 victory at Union Berlin, while Mainz arrives with fatigue concerns after midweek Conference League action. Key injuries plague both squads, with Bremen missing defender Amos Pieper and Mainz without goalkeeper Robin Zentner. Our expert picks suggest value in the home win market, while football tips today point toward a competitive encounter with multiple goal-scoring opportunities given both teams' defensive frailties.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Unfavorable

Injury Impact

High

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Werder Bremen6-7-1224.0%
FSV Mainz 055-9-1120.0%
Goals Scored
Werder Bremen29
FSV Mainz 0529
Goals Conceded
Werder Bremen45
FSV Mainz 0541
Goal Difference
Werder Bremen-16
FSV Mainz 05-12

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 - Match Analysis

Why is Werder Bremen favored despite being only two points ahead of Mainz?

Bremen's favoritism stems from multiple factors beyond league position. They enjoy home advantage at the Weserstadion, have superior recent form with back-to-back wins, and benefit from six days' rest compared to Mainz's grueling two-day turnaround after Conference League action. Additionally, Bremen's historical home record against Mainz and their marginally better defensive record at home support the bookmakers' assessment of their winning chances.

What alternative bets should I consider for Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?

The Over 2.5 Goals market offers excellent value given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities - Bremen concedes 1.8 goals per game while Mainz allows 1.64. Both Teams to Score is another strong alternative, as neither side keeps clean sheets consistently. For conservative bettors, Draw No Bet on Bremen provides insurance against Mainz's tendency to secure draws away from home while still capitalizing on Bremen's home advantage and superior recent form.

How does Mainz's fixture congestion affect this prediction?

Mainz's midweek Conference League match creates significant fatigue concerns, having played just two days before this fixture while Bremen enjoyed six days' rest. This congestion typically impacts away teams more severely, as travel and unfamiliar surroundings compound physical tiredness. Mainz's already poor away record (two wins from twelve) becomes even more concerning when factoring in tired legs and potential squad rotation. This fatigue differential strengthens Bremen's chances considerably.

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Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Werder Bremen (5)Draws (2)FSV Mainz 05 (3)
Nov 1, 25
(H)FSV Mainz 051 - 1Werder Bremen(A)
D
Jan 31, 25
(H)Werder Bremen1 - 0FSV Mainz 05(A)
H
Sep 15, 24
(H)FSV Mainz 051 - 2Werder Bremen(A)
A
Feb 3, 24
(H)FSV Mainz 050 - 1Werder Bremen(A)
A
Sep 2, 23
(H)Werder Bremen4 - 0FSV Mainz 05(A)
H
Apr 8, 23
(H)FSV Mainz 052 - 2Werder Bremen(A)
D
Oct 15, 22
(H)Werder Bremen0 - 2FSV Mainz 05(A)
A
Apr 21, 21
(H)Werder Bremen0 - 1FSV Mainz 05(A)
A
Dec 19, 20
(H)FSV Mainz 050 - 1Werder Bremen(A)
A
Jun 20, 20
(H)FSV Mainz 053 - 1Werder Bremen(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent head-to-head encounters favor a competitive dynamic between these sides. In their last meeting this season, the teams played out...

Recent head-to-head encounters favor a competitive dynamic between these sides. In their last meeting this season, the teams played out a 1-1 draw at Mainz's home ground. Looking at the past two years, Bremen holds a slight edge with two wins compared to Mainz's one victory, plus that recent draw. The matches have been generally low-scoring affairs, with three of the last four meetings producing under 2.5 goals. Bremen's home record against Mainz shows they can capitalize on familiar surroundings, having won their last home encounter 1-0 in early 2025.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsBundesliga matches highlighted

Werder Bremen

14 of 15 in Bundesliga

W
W
L
L
L
D
L
L
D
L
D
D
L
L
D

Form Rating

3/10

Werder Bremen Form Analysis

Trending

Werder Bremen enters this fixture with renewed confidence after securing back-to-back victories that have lifted...

Werder Bremen enters this fixture with renewed confidence after securing back-to-back victories that have lifted them from the relegation conversation. Their recent 4-1 triumph at Union Berlin showcased their attacking potential, while the preceding 2-0 home win against Heidenheim demonstrated defensive solidity. However, Bremen's overall campaign tells a story of inconsistency, managing just six wins from 25 matches. Their home form at the Weserstadion has been mixed with four wins, four draws, and four losses from twelve games. The team averages 1.16 goals scored but concedes a concerning 1.8 goals per game. Key absences include defender Amos Pieper and several other players through injury, though the squad has had adequate rest with six days since their last match. Striker Marvin Ducksch remains their primary goal threat when fit.

FSV Mainz 05

12 of 15 in Bundesliga

D
D
D
D
L
W
W
W
L
W
D
D
W
D
D

Form Rating

6/10

FSV Mainz 05 Form Analysis

Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 arrives in Bremen facing significant fatigue concerns after their midweek Conference League...

FSV Mainz 05 arrives in Bremen facing significant fatigue concerns after their midweek Conference League clash against Sigma Olomouc, having played just two days ago. Their recent domestic form shows resilience with a 2-2 draw against Stuttgart, but they've managed only five wins all season. Mainz's away record is particularly concerning, collecting just eight points from twelve road trips with two wins, four draws, and six losses. They've scored only 14 goals away from home while conceding 25, highlighting their struggles on the road. The absence of first-choice goalkeeper Robin Zentner through injury compounds their defensive issues. Despite their league position, Mainz has shown fighting spirit in recent matches, earning valuable points against stronger opposition. Their 36% draw rate suggests they're difficult to beat but lack the cutting edge to secure victories consistently.

shieldWerder Bremen9

  • M. Weiser profile photo

    M. Weiser

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • M. Wober profile photo

    M. Wober

    Muscle Injury
    Out
  • A. Pieper profile photo

    A. Pieper

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • F. Agu profile photo

    F. Agu

    Muscle Injury
    Questionable
  • V. Boniface profile photo

    V. Boniface

    Knee Injury
    Out
M. WeiserWerder Bremen
M. WoberWerder Bremen
A. PieperWerder Bremen
F. AguWerder Bremen
V. BonifaceWerder Bremen
S. MbangulaWerder Bremen
J. MilosevicWerder Bremen
K. CoulibalyWerder Bremen
W. AdehWerder Bremen

Showing 1-5 of 9 injuries

shieldFSV Mainz 058

  • N. Amiri profile photo

    N. Amiri

    Heel Injury
    Out
  • Silas profile photo

    Silas

    Broken shinbone
    Out
  • A. Caci profile photo

    A. Caci

    Thigh Injury
    Out
  • R. Zentner profile photo

    R. Zentner

    Groin Injury
    Out
  • S. Bell profile photo

    S. Bell

    Injury
    Questionable
N. AmiriFSV Mainz 05
SilasFSV Mainz 05
A. CaciFSV Mainz 05
R. ZentnerFSV Mainz 05
S. BellFSV Mainz 05
A. Hanche-OlsenFSV Mainz 05
B. HollerbachFSV Mainz 05
M. DalFSV Mainz 05

Showing 1-5 of 8 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.