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RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig4th in Bundesliga (11-3-5)
VS
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 0516th in Bundesliga (3-6-10)

RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05

Saturday, Jan 31, 2026 · --:--

Red Bull Arena

Final
RB Leipzig
1–2
FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction sees the hosts as strong favorites in this Bundesliga preview. Leipzig sits fourth with 36 points, while Mainz languishes in 16th with just 15 points, fighting relegation. The home side has won three of their last five matches, including impressive victories over Heidenheim (3-0) and Freiburg (2-0), despite a heavy defeat to Bayern Munich. Mainz arrives with momentum after beating Wolfsburg 3-1 but remains inconsistent with just three wins all season. Key injuries plague both sides - Leipzig miss Baumgartner (suspension), Lukeba and Ouedraogo (knee injuries), while Mainz are without goalkeeper Zentner (groin) and defender Caci (thigh). With Leipzig's superior quality and home advantage, our expert picks favor the hosts to secure three crucial points. These football tips today highlight Leipzig's attacking prowess against Mainz's leaky defense, making this a compelling free tips opportunity for value seekers.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Unfavorable

Injury Impact

High

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
RB Leipzig11-3-557.9%
FSV Mainz 053-6-1015.8%
Goals Scored
RB Leipzig37
FSV Mainz 0521
Goals Conceded
RB Leipzig25
FSV Mainz 0532
Goal Difference
RB Leipzig+12
FSV Mainz 05-11

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 - Match Analysis

Why is RB Leipzig strongly favored against FSV Mainz 05?

Leipzig sits 32 points ahead of Mainz in the table, reflecting a massive quality gap. The hosts occupy fourth place with Champions League ambitions while Mainz fights relegation in 16th. Leipzig's home record (7-2-0) contrasts sharply with Mainz's away struggles (1-3-5). Recent form also favors Leipzig with three wins in five matches compared to Mainz's inconsistent performances despite their last victory.

What alternative bets should I consider for RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?

Over 2.5 Goals offers excellent value given Leipzig's attacking prowess (1.9 goals per game) and Mainz's defensive vulnerabilities (32 goals conceded). Leipzig -1 Asian Handicap provides another smart option, covering their expected winning margin while offering insurance. Both Teams to Score could also appeal given both sides' recent attacking displays, though Mainz's away scoring record remains poor.

How do recent injuries affect this RB Leipzig vs Mainz prediction?

Both teams face key absences that could influence the outcome. Leipzig miss suspended midfielder Baumgartner and injured defender Lukeba, potentially weakening their structure. However, Mainz's problems are more severe with goalkeeper Zentner (groin injury) and defender Caci (thigh) unavailable. Losing their first-choice keeper significantly impacts Mainz's already fragile defense, making Leipzig's task easier despite their own injury concerns.

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Last 10 head-to-head matchups

RB Leipzig (3)Draws (2)FSV Mainz 05 (5)
Sep 13, 25
(H)FSV Mainz 050 - 1RB Leipzig(A)
A
Mar 1, 25
(H)RB Leipzig1 - 2FSV Mainz 05(A)
A
Oct 19, 24
(H)FSV Mainz 050 - 2RB Leipzig(A)
A
Mar 30, 24
(H)RB Leipzig0 - 0FSV Mainz 05(A)
D
Nov 4, 23
(H)FSV Mainz 052 - 0RB Leipzig(A)
H
Apr 1, 23
(H)RB Leipzig0 - 3FSV Mainz 05(A)
A
Oct 8, 22
(H)FSV Mainz 051 - 1RB Leipzig(A)
D
Jan 8, 22
(H)RB Leipzig4 - 1FSV Mainz 05(A)
H
Aug 15, 21
(H)FSV Mainz 051 - 0RB Leipzig(A)
H
Jan 23, 21
(H)FSV Mainz 053 - 2RB Leipzig(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters favor Leipzig with two wins in their last three meetings since 2024. Leipzig won 1-0 away at Mainz...

Recent encounters favor Leipzig with two wins in their last three meetings since 2024. Leipzig won 1-0 away at Mainz in September 2025, while Mainz shocked Leipzig 2-1 at home in March 2025. The earlier 2024 meeting saw Leipzig dominate 2-0 at Mainz. This head-to-head record shows competitive matches with home advantage proving decisive, suggesting Leipzig's Red Bull Arena fortress could be crucial.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsBundesliga matches highlighted

RB Leipzig

13 of 15 in Bundesliga

D
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
W
W
W

Form Rating

6.7/10

RB Leipzig Form Analysis

Trending

Leipzig enters with mixed recent form, winning three of their last five league matches. Their...

Leipzig enters with mixed recent form, winning three of their last five league matches. Their attacking display against Heidenheim (3-0 away win) and solid home victory over Freiburg (2-0) demonstrate their quality when focused. However, the 5-1 home thrashing by Bayern Munich exposed defensive vulnerabilities. The recent 1-1 draw at St. Pauli was disappointing but Leipzig still averages 1.9 goals per game. Missing key defender Lukeba and creative midfielder Baumgartner through suspension will test their squad depth. Benjamin Sesko remains their main attacking threat.

FSV Mainz 05

11 of 15 in Bundesliga

W
L
W
D
D
W
D
D
L
L
L
D
L
W
D

Form Rating

4.7/10

FSV Mainz 05 Form Analysis

Analysis

Mainz showed fighting spirit with a crucial 3-1 home win over Wolfsburg, ending a poor...

Mainz showed fighting spirit with a crucial 3-1 home win over Wolfsburg, ending a poor run of form. However, they've managed just three wins all season and sit precariously in the relegation playoff spot. Their away record is particularly concerning with only one win in nine road trips. Defensive issues persist, conceding 32 goals in 19 matches. The absence of first-choice goalkeeper Zentner due to groin injury is a significant blow. Jonathan Burkardt leads their attack but lacks consistent support, making scoring away from home a major challenge.

shieldRB Leipzig5

  • C. Baumgartner profile photo

    C. Baumgartner

    Yellow Cards
    Out
  • C. Lukeba profile photo

    C. Lukeba

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • J. Bakayoko profile photo

    J. Bakayoko

    Calf Injury
    Questionable
  • A. Ouedraogo profile photo

    A. Ouedraogo

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • V. Gebel profile photo

    V. Gebel

    Knee Injury
    Out
C. BaumgartnerRB Leipzig
C. LukebaRB Leipzig
J. BakayokoRB Leipzig
A. OuedraogoRB Leipzig
V. GebelRB Leipzig

shieldFSV Mainz 059

  • D. Kohr profile photo

    D. Kohr

    Yellow Cards
    Out
  • A. Nordin profile photo

    A. Nordin

    Injury
    Questionable
  • A. Caci profile photo

    A. Caci

    Thigh Injury
    Out
  • M. Leitsch profile photo

    M. Leitsch

    Injury
    Out
  • R. Zentner profile photo

    R. Zentner

    Groin Injury
    Out
D. KohrFSV Mainz 05
A. NordinFSV Mainz 05
A. CaciFSV Mainz 05
M. LeitschFSV Mainz 05
R. ZentnerFSV Mainz 05
A. Hanche-OlsenFSV Mainz 05
S. KawasakiFSV Mainz 05
N. VeratschnigFSV Mainz 05
M. DalFSV Mainz 05

Showing 1-5 of 9 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.