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FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli17th in Bundesliga (4-5-13)
VS
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen16th in Bundesliga (4-7-11)

FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen

Sunday, Feb 22, 2026 · --:--

Millerntor-Stadion

Final
FC St. Pauli
2–1
Werder Bremen

FC St. Pauli won

✓Our prediction was correct

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen prediction highlights a crucial relegation battle at the Millerntor-Stadion. This Bundesliga preview features two teams desperately fighting to avoid the drop, with St. Pauli (17th, 17 points) hosting Bremen (16th, 19 points) in what could define both clubs' seasons. St. Pauli showed resilience with a stunning 2-1 victory over Stuttgart but suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat to Leverkusen in their last outing. Bremen arrives in equally poor form, having lost three of their last four matches including a 3-0 thrashing by Bayern Munich. Both sides struggle defensively, with St. Pauli conceding 39 goals and Bremen 42 in 22 games. Key injuries plague both squads - St. Pauli miss defender Hountondji and midfielder Jones, while Bremen are without several players including Boniface and Weiser. The home advantage could prove decisive for St. Pauli, who have been more competitive at the Millerntor-Stadion this season. Our expert picks favor a narrow home victory, with football tips today suggesting St. Pauli's desperation and home support will edge this vital encounter. Free tips point to a low-scoring affair between two defensively fragile but attacking-minded teams.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Unfavorable

Injury Impact

High

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
FC St. Pauli4-5-1318.2%
Werder Bremen4-7-1118.2%
Goals Scored
FC St. Pauli20
Werder Bremen22
Goals Conceded
FC St. Pauli39
Werder Bremen42
Goal Difference
FC St. Pauli-19
Werder Bremen-20

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen - Match Analysis

Why is FC St. Pauli favored despite being lower in the table?

St. Pauli's home advantage at the Millerntor-Stadion is crucial in this relegation battle. They've shown greater resilience at home this season and recently defeated Champions League-chasing Stuttgart 2-1. Bremen's poor away form, with multiple losses on the road, makes them vulnerable. The passionate home support and St. Pauli's desperation to avoid relegation creates a perfect storm for an upset victory.

What alternative bets should I consider for St. Pauli vs Bremen?

Consider the Under 2.5 Goals market given both teams' defensive priorities in this relegation battle. Both Teams to Score - No offers value as both sides may struggle to find the net under pressure. The Draw No Bet: St. Pauli market provides insurance while backing the home advantage. First Half Draw is another option, as both teams may start cautiously in such a crucial encounter.

How do the injury lists affect this relegation battle?

Both teams face significant injury concerns that could impact the match outcome. St. Pauli miss key defender Hountondji and midfielder Jones, weakening their already fragile backline. Bremen's injury list is more extensive, missing striker Boniface, defender Weiser, and center-back Pieper. These absences force both managers to field weakened lineups, potentially leading to a scrappy, low-quality encounter that favors the home side's passionate support.

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Last 10 head-to-head matchups

FC St. Pauli (0)Draws (5)Werder Bremen (5)
Jan 4, 26
(H)FC St. Pauli0 - 0Werder Bremen(A)
D
Oct 4, 25
(H)Werder Bremen1 - 0FC St. Pauli(A)
H
Apr 27, 25
(H)Werder Bremen0 - 0FC St. Pauli(A)
D
Dec 14, 24
(H)FC St. Pauli0 - 2Werder Bremen(A)
A
Jan 4, 23
(H)Werder Bremen - FC St. Pauli(A)
D
Apr 9, 22
(H)FC St. Pauli1 - 1Werder Bremen(A)
D
Oct 30, 21
(H)Werder Bremen1 - 1FC St. Pauli(A)
D
Aug 29, 20
(H)Werder Bremen1 - 0FC St. Pauli(A)
H
Apr 23, 11
(H)FC St. Pauli1 - 3Werder Bremen(A)
A
Nov 28, 10
(H)Werder Bremen3 - 0FC St. Pauli(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters between these sides show a competitive rivalry. In their last Bundesliga meeting in October 2025, Bremen secured a...

Recent encounters between these sides show a competitive rivalry. In their last Bundesliga meeting in October 2025, Bremen secured a narrow 1-0 victory at home. The teams also drew 0-0 in a friendly match in January 2026. Looking at their 2024-25 season encounters, Bremen dominated with a 2-0 away win at the Millerntor-Stadion. The head-to-head record slightly favors Bremen, but matches between these clubs are typically tight affairs with minimal goal difference.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsBundesliga matches highlighted

FC St. Pauli

12 of 15 in Bundesliga

L
W
L
L
D
D
L
L
D
D
W
D
W
L
L

Form Rating

3.7/10

FC St. Pauli Form Analysis

Trending

FC St. Pauli's recent form shows the inconsistency of a relegation-threatened side. They managed an...

FC St. Pauli's recent form shows the inconsistency of a relegation-threatened side. They managed an impressive 2-1 home victory over Champions League-chasing Stuttgart, demonstrating their ability to rise to big occasions at the Millerntor-Stadion. However, they followed this with a disappointing 4-0 defeat away to Bayer Leverkusen, highlighting their struggles on the road. Their home form has been crucial to their survival hopes, with the Millerntor-Stadion providing a fortress-like atmosphere. Key injuries to Hountondji (ankle) and Jones limit their defensive options. Forward Elias Saad has been their main attacking threat, while goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj will be crucial in keeping Bremen's attack at bay.

Werder Bremen

14 of 15 in Bundesliga

L
L
D
L
L
D
L
D
D
L
L
D
L
W
D

Form Rating

2.7/10

Werder Bremen Form Analysis

Analysis

Werder Bremen's form reflects their precarious league position, managing just one point from their last...

Werder Bremen's form reflects their precarious league position, managing just one point from their last four matches. The 3-0 home defeat to Bayern Munich was particularly concerning, showing their vulnerability against quality opposition. They've struggled for consistency all season, with their attacking play often undermined by defensive frailties. Bremen's away form has been problematic, contributing to their relegation battle. Multiple injuries compound their problems, with key players Boniface, Weiser, and Pieper all sidelined. Marvin Ducksch remains their primary goal threat, but Bremen need collective improvement to climb away from danger. Their recent 1-1 draw with Gladbach showed fighting spirit they'll need to replicate.

shieldFC St. Pauli3

  • D. Nemeth profile photo

    D. Nemeth

    Groin Injury
    Out
  • R. Jones profile photo

    R. Jones

    Injury
    Out
  • A. Hountondji profile photo

    A. Hountondji

    Ankle Injury
    Out
D. NemethFC St. Pauli
R. JonesFC St. Pauli
A. HountondjiFC St. Pauli

shieldWerder Bremen6

  • M. Weiser profile photo

    M. Weiser

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • M. Wober profile photo

    M. Wober

    Muscle Injury
    Out
  • A. Pieper profile photo

    A. Pieper

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • V. Boniface profile photo

    V. Boniface

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • K. Coulibaly profile photo

    K. Coulibaly

    Thigh Injury
    Out
M. WeiserWerder Bremen
M. WoberWerder Bremen
A. PieperWerder Bremen
V. BonifaceWerder Bremen
K. CoulibalyWerder Bremen
W. AdehWerder Bremen

Showing 1-5 of 6 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.