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FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli17th in Bundesliga (3-5-12)
VS
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart4th in Bundesliga (12-3-5)

FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart

Saturday, Feb 7, 2026 · --:--

Millerntor-Stadion

Final
FC St. Pauli
2–1
VfB Stuttgart

FC St. Pauli won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart prediction highlights a massive class gap in this Bundesliga preview. Stuttgart sits 4th with 39 points and Champions League ambitions, while St. Pauli languishes in 17th place with just 14 points, deep in relegation trouble. The visitors have won five of their last six matches, including impressive victories over Borussia Mönchengladbach (3-0) and Freiburg (1-0). St. Pauli's recent form shows one win in ten league games, with heavy defeats to top teams. Stuttgart's attacking prowess (37 goals in 20 games) contrasts sharply with St. Pauli's struggles (18 goals scored, 34 conceded). Key injuries plague both sides, but Stuttgart's superior squad depth should prove decisive. Our expert picks favor Stuttgart despite the short rest period from their DFB Pokal quarter-final victory. These football tips today recommend backing the away side for a comfortable victory at the Millerntor-Stadion.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Strong

H2H Record

Favorable

Injury Impact

High

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
FC St. Pauli3-5-1215.0%
VfB Stuttgart12-3-560.0%
Goals Scored
FC St. Pauli18
VfB Stuttgart37
Goals Conceded
FC St. Pauli34
VfB Stuttgart26
Goal Difference
FC St. Pauli-16
VfB Stuttgart+11

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart - Match Analysis

Why is VfB Stuttgart so heavily favored against FC St. Pauli?

Stuttgart sits 4th in the table with Champions League ambitions, while St. Pauli languishes in 17th place fighting relegation. The 25-point gap reflects Stuttgart's superior quality, with 37 goals scored compared to St. Pauli's 18. Stuttgart has won five of their last six matches, while St. Pauli has managed just one win in ten league games. The class difference is enormous.

What alternative bets should I consider for this match?

Stuttgart -1.5 Asian Handicap offers excellent value given their attacking superiority and St. Pauli's defensive struggles. The visitors have won by multiple goals against weaker teams recently. Under 2.5 Goals provides a hedge option if Stuttgart controls the game conservatively. Both teams have injury concerns that could affect the final scoreline.

How does Stuttgart's short rest period affect this prediction?

Stuttgart played their DFB Pokal quarter-final just two days ago, creating potential fatigue issues. However, their superior squad depth and rotation options should manage this challenge effectively. The quality gap between these teams is so significant that even a slightly weakened Stuttgart side should comfortably handle relegation-threatened St. Pauli at the Millerntor-Stadion.

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Last 10 head-to-head matchups

FC St. Pauli (1)Draws (1)VfB Stuttgart (8)
Sep 19, 25
(H)VfB Stuttgart2 - 0FC St. Pauli(A)
H
May 3, 25
(H)FC St. Pauli0 - 1VfB Stuttgart(A)
A
Dec 21, 24
(H)VfB Stuttgart0 - 1FC St. Pauli(A)
A
Feb 1, 20
(H)FC St. Pauli1 - 1VfB Stuttgart(A)
D
Aug 17, 19
(H)VfB Stuttgart2 - 1FC St. Pauli(A)
H
Jan 29, 17
(H)FC St. Pauli0 - 1VfB Stuttgart(A)
A
Aug 8, 16
(H)VfB Stuttgart2 - 1FC St. Pauli(A)
H
Oct 31, 12
(H)VfB Stuttgart3 - 0FC St. Pauli(A)
H
Mar 13, 11
(H)FC St. Pauli1 - 2VfB Stuttgart(A)
A
Oct 24, 10
(H)VfB Stuttgart2 - 0FC St. Pauli(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent head-to-head encounters heavily favor Stuttgart with three wins from four meetings since 2024. Stuttgart won 2-0 at home in...

Recent head-to-head encounters heavily favor Stuttgart with three wins from four meetings since 2024. Stuttgart won 2-0 at home in September 2025 and secured narrow 1-0 victories in both 2024 encounters. The only exception was St. Pauli's surprise 1-0 home win in December 2024. Stuttgart has dominated this fixture historically, winning seven of the last ten meetings across all competitions.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsBundesliga matches highlighted

FC St. Pauli

12 of 15 in Bundesliga

L
L
D
D
L
L
D
D
W
D
W
L
L
L
L

Form Rating

3/10

FC St. Pauli Form Analysis

Trending

St. Pauli's form is deeply concerning with just one win in their last ten Bundesliga...

St. Pauli's form is deeply concerning with just one win in their last ten Bundesliga matches. They've managed only three victories all season, scoring a meager 18 goals while conceding 34. Recent results include narrow defeats to Augsburg (2-1) and Wolfsburg (2-1), plus a heavy DFB Pokal loss to Bayer Leverkusen (3-0). Their home record offers little comfort with just two wins from nine games. Key injuries to A. Hountondji (ankle), R. Jones, and C. Metcalfe (knee) further weaken their already limited squad. The team's attacking output remains woeful, averaging less than one goal per game.

VfB Stuttgart

9 of 15 in Bundesliga

W
W
W
W
L
D
W
W
W
D
W
W
L
W
L

Form Rating

7.3/10

VfB Stuttgart Form Analysis

Analysis

Stuttgart arrives in excellent form, winning five of their last six matches across all competitions....

Stuttgart arrives in excellent form, winning five of their last six matches across all competitions. Their recent 3-0 DFB Pokal victory over Holstein Kiel followed impressive league wins against Freiburg (1-0) and Mönchengladbach (3-0). The team has scored 37 goals in 20 league games, showcasing their attacking quality. Away form has been solid with five wins from ten road trips. However, fatigue concerns arise from their midweek cup fixture, giving them just two days' rest. L. Jovanovic remains sidelined with a back injury, while several players carry minor knocks. Their European commitments add extra strain to the squad.

shieldFC St. Pauli6

  • C. Metcalfe profile photo

    C. Metcalfe

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • D. Nemeth profile photo

    D. Nemeth

    Groin Injury
    Out
  • E. Smith profile photo

    E. Smith

    Heel Injury
    Questionable
  • H. Wahl profile photo

    H. Wahl

    Injury
    Questionable
  • R. Jones profile photo

    R. Jones

    Injury
    Out
C. MetcalfeFC St. Pauli
D. NemethFC St. Pauli
E. SmithFC St. Pauli
H. WahlFC St. Pauli
R. JonesFC St. Pauli
A. HountondjiFC St. Pauli

Showing 1-5 of 6 injuries

shieldVfB Stuttgart4

  • D. Zagadou profile photo

    D. Zagadou

    Muscle Injury
    Questionable
  • N. Nartey profile photo

    N. Nartey

    Knock
    Questionable
  • T. Tomas profile photo

    T. Tomas

    Muscle Injury
    Questionable
  • L. Jovanovic profile photo

    L. Jovanovic

    Back Injury
    Out
D. ZagadouVfB Stuttgart
N. NarteyVfB Stuttgart
T. TomasVfB Stuttgart
L. JovanovicVfB Stuttgart

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.