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Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen6th in Bundesliga (12-3-7)
VS
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 0513th in Bundesliga (5-7-11)

Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05

Saturday, Feb 28, 2026 · --:--

BayArena

Final
Bayer Leverkusen
1–1
FSV Mainz 05

Draw

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction centers on a clear home advantage for the hosts at BayArena. This Bundesliga preview highlights Leverkusen's superior league position (6th vs 13th) and significantly better attacking output. The home side averages 1.95 goals per game compared to Mainz's modest 1.13, while their defensive record is also stronger. Leverkusen's recent form shows resilience despite some inconsistency, including a 4-0 home thrashing of St. Pauli and crucial Champions League progression. Mainz arrives with just five wins from 23 league matches and a concerning away record of two wins in eleven attempts. Key injuries plague both sides, with Leverkusen missing goalkeeper Flekken and defender Bade, while Mainz lacks several defensive options including Bell and Zentner. The bookmaker consensus strongly favors the hosts at 55.7% probability, reflecting the significant quality gap. Our expert picks suggest backing Leverkusen's home advantage, with football tips today pointing toward a comfortable victory for the Conference League qualification hopefuls against relegation-threatened visitors.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Even

Injury Impact

High

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Bayer Leverkusen12-3-754.5%
FSV Mainz 055-7-1121.7%
Goals Scored
Bayer Leverkusen43
FSV Mainz 0526
Goals Conceded
Bayer Leverkusen28
FSV Mainz 0538
Goal Difference
Bayer Leverkusen+15
FSV Mainz 05-12

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 - Match Analysis

Why is Bayer Leverkusen strongly favored against FSV Mainz 05?

Leverkusen holds significant advantages across all key metrics. They sit seven places higher in the table with 0.81 more points per game, while their attacking output of 1.95 goals per match far exceeds Mainz's 1.13. The home advantage at BayArena, combined with Mainz's poor away record of just two wins in eleven attempts, creates a compelling case for the hosts. Recent head-to-head meetings also favor Leverkusen with two wins and one draw from their last three encounters.

What alternative bets should I consider for Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?

Over 2.5 Goals stands out as the top alternative market, given these teams' recent meetings have averaged 5.7 goals per game and Leverkusen's strong attacking record. Draw No Bet: Leverkusen offers insurance against an unlikely stalemate while backing the superior team. Both Teams to Score is less appealing due to Mainz's poor away scoring record, managing just nine goals in eleven away matches this season.

How do the injury concerns affect this match prediction?

Both teams face significant absences that could impact the game's flow. Leverkusen miss key goalkeeper Mark Flekken and defender Loic Bade, potentially weakening their defensive structure. Mainz's injury list is more extensive, losing goalkeeper Robin Zentner, defender Stefan Bell, and midfielder Anthony Caci. However, Leverkusen's superior squad depth means they're better equipped to handle these absences, while Mainz's limited options could expose their existing weaknesses further.

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Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Bayer Leverkusen (6)Draws (2)FSV Mainz 05 (2)
Oct 18, 25
(H)FSV Mainz 053 - 4Bayer Leverkusen(A)
A
May 17, 25
(H)FSV Mainz 052 - 2Bayer Leverkusen(A)
D
Jan 14, 25
(H)Bayer Leverkusen1 - 0FSV Mainz 05(A)
H
Feb 23, 24
(H)Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1FSV Mainz 05(A)
H
Sep 30, 23
(H)FSV Mainz 050 - 3Bayer Leverkusen(A)
A
Feb 19, 23
(H)Bayer Leverkusen2 - 3FSV Mainz 05(A)
A
Aug 27, 22
(H)FSV Mainz 050 - 3Bayer Leverkusen(A)
A
Feb 18, 22
(H)FSV Mainz 053 - 2Bayer Leverkusen(A)
H
Sep 25, 21
(H)Bayer Leverkusen1 - 0FSV Mainz 05(A)
H
Feb 13, 21
(H)Bayer Leverkusen2 - 2FSV Mainz 05(A)
D

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters between these sides have produced entertaining affairs with plenty of goals. In their last meeting this season, Leverkusen...

Recent encounters between these sides have produced entertaining affairs with plenty of goals. In their last meeting this season, Leverkusen secured a thrilling 4-3 away victory at Mainz, demonstrating their attacking prowess. The previous campaign saw a 2-2 draw at Mainz and a 1-0 Leverkusen home win. Over the past two years, Leverkusen holds a clear advantage with two wins and one draw from three meetings, scoring ten goals while conceding seven. The matches consistently feature multiple goals, with an average of 5.7 goals per game in recent encounters.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsBundesliga matches highlighted

Bayer Leverkusen

9 of 15 in Bundesliga

D
L
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
D

Form Rating

6.3/10

Bayer Leverkusen Form Analysis

Trending

Bayer Leverkusen enters this fixture with mixed recent form but showing signs of recovery. Their...

Bayer Leverkusen enters this fixture with mixed recent form but showing signs of recovery. Their last Bundesliga outing was disappointing, losing 1-0 away to Union Berlin, but they bounced back with a goalless Champions League draw against Olympiakos that secured knockout stage progression. At home, they've been more convincing, demolishing St. Pauli 4-0 in their previous BayArena appearance. The attacking threat remains potent with 1.95 goals per game, though defensive consistency has been an issue. Key absences include goalkeeper Mark Flekken and defender Loic Bade through injury, potentially disrupting their defensive structure. Midfielder Nathan Tella is also sidelined, limiting attacking options. Despite these concerns, their home record of seven wins from eleven matches provides confidence. Florian Wirtz continues to be their creative catalyst when fit.

FSV Mainz 05

12 of 15 in Bundesliga

D
L
W
W
W
L
W
D
D
W
D
D
L
L
L

Form Rating

5/10

FSV Mainz 05 Form Analysis

Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 arrives in poor form, managing just one point from their last two...

FSV Mainz 05 arrives in poor form, managing just one point from their last two Bundesliga matches. Their recent 1-1 home draw with Hamburg was preceded by a heavy 4-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund, highlighting their struggles against quality opposition. Away from home, Mainz has been particularly weak with only two wins in eleven attempts this season. Their attacking output of 1.13 goals per game ranks among the league's lowest, while defensively they concede 1.65 goals per match. The injury list is extensive, with goalkeeper Robin Zentner and defender Stefan Bell both ruled out, forcing tactical adjustments. Midfielder Anthony Caci's thigh injury further depletes their options. Recent positive results include wins over Wolfsburg and Heidenheim at home, but their away form suggests they'll struggle at the BayArena. Jonathan Burkardt remains their main attacking threat when available.

shieldBayer Leverkusen7

  • Lucas profile photo

    Lucas

    Injury
    Questionable
  • M. Flekken profile photo

    M. Flekken

    Injury
    Out
  • M. Tillman profile photo

    M. Tillman

    Ankle Injury
    Questionable
  • L. Bade profile photo

    L. Bade

    Muscle Injury
    Out
  • N. Tella profile photo

    N. Tella

    Injury
    Out
LucasBayer Leverkusen
M. FlekkenBayer Leverkusen
M. TillmanBayer Leverkusen
L. BadeBayer Leverkusen
N. TellaBayer Leverkusen
E. Ben SeghirBayer Leverkusen
I. MazaBayer Leverkusen

Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries

shieldFSV Mainz 059

  • A. Caci profile photo

    A. Caci

    Thigh Injury
    Out
  • R. Zentner profile photo

    R. Zentner

    Groin Injury
    Out
  • S. Bell profile photo

    S. Bell

    Injury
    Out
  • A. Hanche-Olsen profile photo

    A. Hanche-Olsen

    Inactive
    Out
  • B. Hollerbach profile photo

    B. Hollerbach

    Achilles Tendon Injury
    Out
A. CaciFSV Mainz 05
R. ZentnerFSV Mainz 05
S. BellFSV Mainz 05
A. Hanche-OlsenFSV Mainz 05
B. HollerbachFSV Mainz 05
S. KawasakiFSV Mainz 05
N. VeratschnigFSV Mainz 05
N. WeiperFSV Mainz 05
M. DalFSV Mainz 05

Showing 1-5 of 9 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.