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Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen6th in Bundesliga (11-3-6)
VS
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli17th in Bundesliga (4-5-12)

Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli

Saturday, Feb 14, 2026 · --:--

BayArena

Final
Bayer Leverkusen
4–0
FC St. Pauli

Bayer Leverkusen won

✓Our prediction was correct

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli prediction favors the hosts in this crucial Bundesliga preview. Leverkusen sits 6th with 36 points, while St. Pauli languishes in 17th place, just one point above the relegation zone. The home side has shown resilience despite inconsistent form, winning three of their last five matches including impressive victories over Villarreal and Frankfurt. St. Pauli's recent upturn with wins over Stuttgart and Heidenheim offers hope, but their away record remains concerning with just one away win all season. Key injuries plague both sides - Leverkusen missing goalkeeper Flekken and winger Tella, while St. Pauli has multiple players questionable including Metcalfe and Smith. The recent DFB Pokal meeting saw Leverkusen dominate 3-0 at home, highlighting the gulf in class. With European qualification at stake for Leverkusen and relegation fears mounting for St. Pauli, our expert picks strongly favor the home side. These football tips today suggest backing Leverkusen's superior quality and home advantage for free tips that deliver value.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 6 head-to-head matchups

Bayer Leverkusen (5)Draws (1)FC St. Pauli (0)
Feb 3, 26
(H)Bayer Leverkusen3 - 0FC St. Pauli(A)
H
Sep 27, 25
(H)FC St. Pauli1 - 2Bayer Leverkusen(A)
A
Apr 20, 25
(H)FC St. Pauli1 - 1Bayer Leverkusen(A)
D
Dec 7, 24
(H)Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1FC St. Pauli(A)
H
Apr 10, 11
(H)Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1FC St. Pauli(A)
H
Nov 13, 10
(H)FC St. Pauli0 - 1Bayer Leverkusen(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters heavily favor Bayer Leverkusen with three wins from their last four meetings since 2024. Most notably, Leverkusen demolished...

Recent encounters heavily favor Bayer Leverkusen with three wins from their last four meetings since 2024. Most notably, Leverkusen demolished St. Pauli 3-0 in the DFB Pokal quarter-final just eleven days ago at the same venue. The previous Bundesliga meeting this season saw Leverkusen win 2-1 away at St. Pauli's Millerntor-Stadion. St. Pauli's only positive result was a 1-1 draw in April 2025, but they've struggled to contain Leverkusen's attacking threat consistently.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsBundesliga matches highlighted

Bayer Leverkusen

9 of 15 in Bundesliga

D
W
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
D
L
W
L
W

Form Rating

6/10

Bayer Leverkusen Form Analysis

Trending

Bayer Leverkusen enters with mixed but encouraging recent form, winning three of their last five...

Bayer Leverkusen enters with mixed but encouraging recent form, winning three of their last five competitive matches. Their 3-1 victory at Frankfurt and dominant 3-0 Champions League win over Villarreal showcase their attacking potential when clicking. The recent 1-1 draw at Mönchengladbach was disappointing but followed a grueling European schedule. At home, Leverkusen has been more reliable with six wins from ten league matches. Key absences include goalkeeper Mark Flekken and winger Nathan Tella through injury, forcing tactical adjustments. Midfielder Florian Wirtz remains their creative catalyst, while striker Victor Boniface provides the focal point in attack.

FC St. Pauli

12 of 15 in Bundesliga

W
L
L
D
D
L
L
D
D
W
D
W
L
L
L

Form Rating

3.7/10

FC St. Pauli Form Analysis

Analysis

FC St. Pauli shows signs of improvement with a crucial 2-1 home victory over Stuttgart,...

FC St. Pauli shows signs of improvement with a crucial 2-1 home victory over Stuttgart, ending a difficult run. However, their away form remains deeply concerning with just one victory on the road all season. The 3-0 DFB Pokal defeat at this same venue exposed their defensive frailties against quality opposition. Multiple injury concerns cloud their preparation, with Connor Metcalfe and Elias Smith both questionable due to knee and heel problems respectively. Defensive stalwarts Aremu Hountondji and Danel Nemeth are confirmed absentees. Captain Jackson Irvine and striker Johannes Eggestein must step up to provide leadership and goals in this relegation battle.

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Bayer Leverkusen11-3-655.0%
FC St. Pauli4-5-1219.0%
Goals Scored
Bayer Leverkusen39
FC St. Pauli20
Goals Conceded
Bayer Leverkusen27
FC St. Pauli35

shieldBayer Leverkusen3

  • M. Flekken profile photo

    M. Flekken

    Injury
    Out
  • N. Tella profile photo

    N. Tella

    Injury
    Out
  • E. Ben Seghir profile photo

    E. Ben Seghir

    Ankle Injury
    Out
M. FlekkenBayer Leverkusen
N. TellaBayer Leverkusen
E. Ben SeghirBayer Leverkusen

shieldFC St. Pauli7

  • C. Metcalfe profile photo

    C. Metcalfe

    Knee Injury
    Questionable
  • D. Nemeth profile photo

    D. Nemeth

    Groin Injury
    Out
  • E. Smith profile photo

    E. Smith

    Heel Injury
    Questionable
  • M. Pereira Lage profile photo

    M. Pereira Lage

    Muscle Injury
    Questionable
  • H. Wahl profile photo

    H. Wahl

    Injury
    Questionable
C. MetcalfeFC St. Pauli
D. NemethFC St. Pauli
E. SmithFC St. Pauli
M. Pereira LageFC St. Pauli
H. WahlFC St. Pauli
R. JonesFC St. Pauli
A. HountondjiFC St. Pauli

Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Recent Form

Strong

H2H Record

Favorable

Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Bayer Leverkusen+12
FC St. Pauli-15

Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli - Match Analysis

Why is Bayer Leverkusen strongly favored against FC St. Pauli?

Leverkusen's superior squad quality, recent 3-0 victory over St. Pauli in the DFB Pokal, and the visitors' terrible away record (one win all season) create a significant advantage. The hosts are fighting for European qualification while St. Pauli battles relegation, adding extra motivation for Leverkusen at home.

What alternative bets should I consider for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?

Leverkusen -1.5 Asian Handicap offers excellent value given their recent 3-0 win over St. Pauli at the same venue. Over 2.5 Goals is another strong option, as Leverkusen's attacking prowess should exploit St. Pauli's defensive weaknesses, especially with key defenders injured.

How do the recent injuries affect both teams' chances?

St. Pauli suffers more from their injury crisis, missing key defenders Hountondji and Nemeth while having Metcalfe and Smith questionable. Leverkusen's absences of Flekken and Tella are manageable with adequate squad depth. The injury imbalance further tilts this match toward the home side.

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