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Turkey won
Turkey faces Lithuania in a World Cup second-round clash between two teams unbeaten in recent momentum but at very different points of form. Turkey enter the game a perfect 6-0, riding six straight wins and topping their group with a commanding goal differential. Lithuania sit at 3-3, splitting their last six games, with narrow losses to Italy and Iceland exposing some inconsistency against top-tier opposition.
Both sides arrive well rested after 53 days off since their last outings, so fatigue is not a factor here — this is a clean form-and-quality matchup rather than a schedule-driven one.
Turkey's per-game scoring edge and tighter defensive numbers (12.28 points allowed per game vs Lithuania's 14.17) suggest they should control tempo. Lithuania's high-scoring away form (86 points per game on the road) keeps them competitive on totals, but their away win rate of just 33% raises doubts about covering against a team playing this well.
Bookmakers have installed Turkey as heavy favorites near 81-82%, aligning with the underlying form gap. Expect a spread pick of Turkey -8.5 and a total leaning toward the Over, given both teams' propensity to push scoring into the 85-95 point range per outing. This looks like a game where Turkey's depth and current win streak should be too much for Lithuania to consistently keep pace with, especially in the second half.
Last 3 head-to-head matchups
The only meetings within the last two years came in August 2025 friendlies, split 1-1 — Lithuania won 84-81 and...
The only meetings within the last two years came in August 2025 friendlies, split 1-1 — Lithuania won 84-81 and Turkey answered with a 91-70 result. A 2014 World Cup meeting also favored Turkey but falls outside the relevant window. With the sample limited to two closely contested friendlies, there's no dominant head-to-head trend, though both games featured high-scoring, competitive basketball rather than blowouts.
Last 6 matches across all competitionsWorld Cup matches highlighted
6 of 6 in World Cup
Form Rating
10/10
Turkey are undefeated across their last six World Cup outings, a run that includes wins...
Turkey are undefeated across their last six World Cup outings, a run that includes wins over Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Serbia twice. Their average scoring output sits near 88.5 points per game while conceding just 73.7, reflecting balance on both ends. With 53 days of rest and no fixture congestion, Turkey are fully recovered and entering this contest in ideal shape. A handful of squad members carry questionable tags, but no first-choice contributor appears to be a major doubt based on the injury report. This is a team peaking at the right time, comfortably the stronger side statistically heading into the second round.
6 of 6 in World Cup
Form Rating
5/10
Lithuania have gone 3-3 across their last six games, with losses to Italy and Iceland...
Lithuania have gone 3-3 across their last six games, with losses to Italy and Iceland showing they can be competitive but occasionally come up short against elite competition. Their offense remains potent, averaging over 90 points scored per game, though a leakier defense (85 points allowed) undercuts their overall efficiency. Several squad members are listed as out or questionable, which could thin their frontcourt depth. Also fully rested after 53 days off, fatigue isn't a concern, but the underlying form gap against Turkey is significant, and their away record this cycle (1-2) suggests vulnerability away from comfort.
2027/2028 Season
Showing 1-5 of 6 injuries
Showing 1-5 of 11 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
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Turkey vs Lithuania - Match Analysis
Turkey's perfect 6-0 record and stronger defensive numbers make them a reasonable pick to cover -8.5, especially against a Lithuania side that's split its last six games. However, Lithuania has shown resilience in close losses to elite competition, so a moderate confidence level fits this spread pick rather than an overwhelming lean.
Given a combined scoring average near 29.8 points per matchup and both teams featuring high-tempo offenses, the Over is the more attractive lean. Lithuania's defense has struggled at times, conceding over 14 points per game on average, which should help push the total higher even against a stingier Turkey defense.
Lithuania's 3-3 form, including losses to Italy and Iceland, highlights vulnerability against top-tier opposition, which mirrors Turkey's current level. While their offense remains capable of keeping games competitive, their away win rate of just 33% this cycle suggests they may struggle to keep pace over a full 40 minutes against an unbeaten Turkey side.
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