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Serbia
Serbia2nd in World Cup (4-2)
VS
Iceland
Iceland3rd in World Cup (3-3)

Serbia vs Iceland

Friday, Aug 28, 2026 · --:--

Final
Serbia
102–73
Iceland

Serbia won

✓Our prediction was correct

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Serbia faces Iceland in a World Cup second-round clash that pits a squad boasting NBA-level talent against a scrappy Icelandic side hunting an upset. Bookmakers have installed Serbia as a near-lock at 96.8% implied probability, and the underlying numbers back that stance.

Both teams are extremely well rested, with over 50 days between games and no fixture congestion heading into this one, so fatigue is a non-factor. Serbia enters on the back of two blowout wins over Bosnia & Herzegovina and Switzerland, scoring 94 and 97 points respectively, though they did drop back-to-back games to Turkey earlier in the tournament. Iceland has been more inconsistent, splitting results and shipping 102 points in a loss to Italy last time out.

Serbia's per-game scoring edge (14.42 vs 14.00) and Iceland's leaky defense (conceding nearly 15 per game) suggest this could get out of hand early. Serbia is dealing with a lengthy injury list, but the depth of talent on this roster should still overwhelm an Iceland squad missing several rotation pieces of its own.

Expect Serbia to control the pace and pull away in the second half. The pick here is Serbia on the spread with confidence, and the total should lean toward the over given both teams' scoring outputs and shaky defenses.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Last 6 matches across all competitionsWorld Cup matches highlighted

Serbia

6 of 6 in World Cup

W
W
L
L
W
W

Form Rating

6.7/10

Serbia Form Analysis

Trending

Serbia enters with a 4-2 record and 2.0 points per game across six matches, ranked...

Serbia enters with a 4-2 record and 2.0 points per game across six matches, ranked second in their second-round group. Their last two outings were dominant wins over Bosnia & Herzegovina (94-81) and Switzerland (97-73), showcasing serious offensive firepower. Sandwiched in between were two losses to Turkey, showing some vulnerability against elite competition. Serbia is dealing with a heavy injury list including several players listed as out or questionable, which could thin the rotation. Still, with 52 days of rest and zero fixture congestion, fatigue won't be an issue, and the talent gap here should carry them through regardless of squad depth concerns.

Iceland

6 of 6 in World Cup

W
L
L
W
L
W

Form Rating

5/10

Iceland Form Analysis

Analysis

Iceland sits at 3-3 with 1.5 points per game, ranked third in the group, showing...

Iceland sits at 3-3 with 1.5 points per game, ranked third in the group, showing more inconsistency than their opponent. Their most recent game was a narrow win over Great Britain, but that followed a lopsided 83-102 defeat to Italy. Iceland's defense has been their main issue, conceding nearly 15 points per game and posting a negative goal difference for the tournament. Several rotation players are questionable or out heading into this game. Like Serbia, Iceland is fully rested with no schedule congestion, but the quality gap and defensive frailties make an upset here a tough ask against a significantly deeper roster.

Season Overview

2027/2028 Season

Record
Serbia4-266.7%
Iceland3-350.0%
Avg Points Scored
Serbia86.5
Iceland84.0
Avg Points Allowed
Serbia81.3
Iceland89.7

shieldSerbia13

  • Dobric Ognjen

    Questionable

  • Miletic Dusan

    Injured

  • Markovic Bogoljub

    Questionable

  • Mitrovic Luka

    Questionable

  • Koprivica Balsa

    Injured
Dobric Ognjen
Miletic Dusan
Markovic Bogoljub
Mitrovic Luka
Koprivica Balsa
Jaramaz Ognjen
Ristic Dusan
Kalinic Nikola
Radanov Aleksa
Miljenovic Stefan
S. Drezgic
N. Rebic
D. Andusic

Showing 1-5 of 13 injuries

shieldIceland10

  • Olafsson Olafur

    Questionable

  • Petursson Sigurdur

    Questionable

  • Steinarsson Aegir

    Questionable

  • Bjornsson Sigtryggur

    Injured

  • Agustsson Ragnar

    Injured
Olafsson Olafur
Petursson Sigurdur
Steinarsson Aegir
Bjornsson Sigtryggur
Agustsson Ragnar
Palsson Haukur
Nathanaelsson Ragnar
O. Gunnarsson
K. Jonsson
B. Gudmundsson

Showing 1-5 of 10 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

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All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

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Moderate

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Moderate

Injury Impact

High

Point Differential
Serbia+5.2
Iceland-5.7

Serbia vs Iceland - Match Analysis

Should I take Serbia to cover a large spread against Iceland?

Yes, Serbia's recent form (two wins by an average of 18+ points) combined with Iceland's leaky defense supports backing Serbia at a significant handicap. The market's 96.8% implied probability reflects a real talent and depth gap, and Serbia's offensive output in their last two games suggests they can comfortably cover most realistic spread numbers.

Will this Serbia vs Iceland game go over the total?

The over looks appealing given combined scoring near 28 points per game per side and neither team playing strong defense this tournament. Iceland conceded over 100 points to Italy last time out, and Serbia has twice topped 90 points in recent games, pointing toward a high-scoring affair if Serbia's offense clicks early.

How does the injury situation affect this matchup?

Both teams have lengthy injury/questionable lists, but Serbia's deeper talent pool should absorb absences more easily than Iceland's thinner roster. Iceland is missing several rotation pieces too, which compounds their defensive issues. Neither team faces fatigue concerns since both are fully rested, so injuries are the bigger swing factor here.

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