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Spain
62%
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Greece faces Spain in a World Cup basketball clash between two sides trailing very different form lines into this meeting. Spain arrive with a 5-2 record and 71.4% win rate across their last seven outings, while Greece sit at 3-4 with a losing record over the same stretch, having dropped three straight before this game.
Both teams played on August 28 and now carry the same two days of rest, so fatigue is roughly a non-factor here. Spain's issue is instead the injury column: several rotation players are out and a handful more are questionable, which could thin their depth even though their scoring numbers remain strong at 87.9 points per game.
Greece have struggled defensively, conceding 70.0 points per game and losing four of their last seven, including a recent defeat to Ukraine. Spain's superior offensive rating (12.56 points per game differential better) and better overall win percentage make them the stronger side on paper, even accounting for their absentees.
With a combined average of 22.95 points per game between the two teams' scoring totals and a 0.0% combined draw rate reflecting basketball's no-draw nature, this projects as a competitive, high-possession contest. Spain's superior depth and recent scoring efficiency should be enough to edge out a Greece side searching for consistency, making Spain the favored spread pick with the total leaning toward the over given both teams' offensive tendencies this tournament.
Moderate
Moderate
Even
High
2027/2028 Season
Last 5 head-to-head matchups
The two sides met in EuroBasket play in September 2025, with the current home side edging a 90-86 result. Going...
The two sides met in EuroBasket play in September 2025, with the current home side edging a 90-86 result. Going back further to the 2024 Olympics, the current away side won 84-77. Within the last two years, the series is split 1-1, with both games decided by single-digit margins, suggesting these are competitive, closely fought matchups whenever they meet on the international stage.
Last 7 matches across all competitionsWorld Cup matches highlighted
7 of 7 in World Cup
Form Rating
4.3/10
Greece enter this game at 3-4 across their last seven matches, with three consecutive losses...
Greece enter this game at 3-4 across their last seven matches, with three consecutive losses including a recent defeat to Ukraine on August 28. Their scoring output of 10.39 points per game (using per-possession scale) is roughly matched by their 10.0 conceded, showing a team that struggles to control games defensively. They carry two days of rest into this one with no back-to-back concerns and low fixture congestion. Their away splits this cycle show 2 wins and 2 losses across four games, while home form has been shakier at 1-2. Consistency has been the issue, with results swinging from a 91-64 win over Romania to lopsided losses against Portugal and Romania in the same stretch.
7 of 7 in World Cup
Form Rating
7.1/10
Spain carry a stronger 5-2 record into this matchup, winning five of their last seven...
Spain carry a stronger 5-2 record into this matchup, winning five of their last seven games including victories over Denmark, Ukraine (twice), and Georgia. Their most recent outing was a narrow loss to Portugal on August 28, snapping a four-game winning streak. Spain also have two days of rest, avoiding any schedule disadvantage. Their offense has been prolific, averaging 12.56 points per game with a strong plus-13.3 goal difference over the sample. The concerning factor is their injury report, with multiple players out and several more questionable, which could test their depth against a hungry Greek side looking to bounce back from recent struggles.
No reported injuries
Showing 1-5 of 17 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Greece vs Spain - Match Analysis
Spain's stronger overall form (5-2 record, 71.4% win rate) and superior scoring differential support them as the favored spread pick. However, their lengthy injury list tempers confidence somewhat. Greece's defensive issues, conceding 70.0 points per game, work in Spain's favor, but bettors should watch pregame injury updates before locking in this spread pick given the number of questionable Spain players.
Given a combined scoring average of 22.95 points per game between these two teams and both sides showing offense-heavy tendencies this tournament, the over looks like the more logical lean. Greece's leaky defense and Spain's consistent scoring output both point toward a higher-possession, higher-scoring contest rather than a defensive grind.
Spain are dealing with a significant number of absences, with several players ruled out and additional names listed as questionable. This could thin their rotation depth, particularly in frontcourt matchups, and may open opportunities for Greece to capitalize if Spain's bench is stretched. Still, Spain's roster depth and recent scoring form suggest they can absorb some absences and remain competitive.
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