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Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder1st in NBA (64-17)
VS
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns14th in NBA (44-37)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns

Monday, Apr 13, 2026 · --:--

Oklahoma City Thunder Arena

Final
Oklahoma City Thunder
103–135
Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

The Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns prediction features the Western Conference leaders hosting a struggling Suns team in what should be a dominant home performance. Oklahoma City sits atop the standings with a stellar 67-18 record, while Phoenix languishes at 14th place with a disappointing 47-37 mark. Both teams face critical fatigue concerns, playing on just one day's rest after back-to-back games. The Thunder's explosive offense averages 118.4 points per game compared to Phoenix's 112.7, while their superior defense allows just 107.8 points versus the Suns' 110.6. Oklahoma City's home dominance (35-6 record) provides a significant edge against a Phoenix team that struggles on the road (20-20). The head-to-head history heavily favors the Thunder, who have dominated recent meetings including a 136-109 blowout earlier this season. With NBA picks pointing toward the home favorite, expert picks suggest taking Oklahoma City to cover a substantial spread despite the rest disadvantage affecting both squads.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Oklahoma City Thunder (8)Phoenix Suns (2)
Feb 12, 26
(H)Phoenix Suns109 - 136Oklahoma City Thunder(A)
A
Jan 5, 26
(H)Phoenix Suns108 - 105Oklahoma City Thunder(A)
H
Dec 11, 25
(H)Oklahoma City Thunder138 - 89Phoenix Suns(A)
H
Nov 29, 25
(H)Oklahoma City Thunder123 - 119Phoenix Suns(A)
H
Apr 10, 25
(H)Phoenix Suns112 - 125Oklahoma City Thunder(A)
A
Feb 6, 25
(H)Oklahoma City Thunder140 - 109Phoenix Suns(A)
H
Nov 16, 24
(H)Oklahoma City Thunder99 - 83Phoenix Suns(A)
H
Jul 18, 24
(H)Oklahoma City Thunder99 - 100Phoenix Suns(A)
A
Mar 30, 24
(H)Oklahoma City Thunder128 - 103Phoenix Suns(A)
H
Mar 4, 24
(H)Phoenix Suns110 - 118Oklahoma City Thunder(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Oklahoma City has completely dominated this matchup recently, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings since 2024. The Thunder's most...

Oklahoma City has completely dominated this matchup recently, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings since 2024. The Thunder's most impressive victory came in February 2026 with a 136-109 demolition in Phoenix, showcasing their offensive firepower. Even in their lone recent loss (108-105 in January 2026), it was a close contest. The Thunder have consistently covered large spreads against Phoenix, including multiple 20+ point victories. This season's earlier meeting saw Oklahoma City cruise to a 27-point win, establishing clear superiority in this head-to-head series.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsNBA matches highlighted

Oklahoma City Thunder

15 of 15 in NBA

L
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W

Form Rating

8.7/10

Oklahoma City Thunder Form Analysis

Trending

Oklahoma City enters riding tremendous momentum despite a recent loss to Denver (127-107). The Thunder...

Oklahoma City enters riding tremendous momentum despite a recent loss to Denver (127-107). The Thunder have been virtually unstoppable at home with a 35-6 record, averaging 118.5 points while allowing just 106.9. Their recent form includes dominant victories over quality opponents like the Lakers (139-96) and impressive road wins against the Clippers (128-110). However, the critical concern is their back-to-back situation with just one day's rest after playing in Denver. The Thunder's depth and conditioning should help, but fatigue could impact their typically explosive offensive start. Star players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are listed as questionable, adding uncertainty to their lineup.

Phoenix Suns

15 of 15 in NBA

L
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
L

Form Rating

3.3/10

Phoenix Suns Form Analysis

Analysis

Phoenix has struggled significantly in recent weeks, losing 4 of their last 6 games including...

Phoenix has struggled significantly in recent weeks, losing 4 of their last 6 games including an embarrassing 73-101 defeat to the Lakers. The Suns' road record of 20-20 reflects their inconsistency away from home, averaging 113.0 points but allowing 112.7. Their offensive efficiency has declined, particularly in fourth quarters where they've been outscored repeatedly. The back-to-back situation is equally concerning for Phoenix, having played the Lakers just one day prior. Key injuries to Devin Booker and other rotation players have depleted their depth. The Suns have shown flashes of competitiveness but lack the consistency needed against elite teams like Oklahoma City.

Season Overview

2026 Season

Record
Oklahoma City Thunder67-1878.8%
Phoenix Suns47-3756.0%
Avg Points Scored
Oklahoma City Thunder118.4
Phoenix Suns112.7
Avg Points Allowed
Oklahoma City Thunder107.8
Phoenix Suns110.6

shieldOklahoma City Thunder15

  • Caruso Alex

    Questionable

  • Boeheim Buddy

    Injured

  • Hartenstein Isaiah

    Questionable

  • Holmgren Chet

    Questionable

  • Gilgeous-Alexander Shai

    Questionable
Caruso Alex
Boeheim Buddy
Hartenstein Isaiah
Holmgren Chet
Gilgeous-Alexander Shai
Joe Isaiah
Wallace Cason
Williams Jalen
Dieng Ousmane
Williams Jaylin
J. Gortman
A. Mitchell
M. Leons
Z. Austin
C. Youngblood

Showing 1-5 of 15 injuries

shieldPhoenix Suns9

  • Green Jalen

    Injured

  • Coffey Amir

    Injured

  • Highsmith Haywood

    Injured

  • Booker Devin

    Injured

  • Duke Jr. David

    Injured
Green Jalen
Coffey Amir
Highsmith Haywood
Booker Devin
Duke Jr. David
Butler Jared
Livers Isaiah
K. Brea
C. Huntley

Showing 1-5 of 9 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Recent Form

Strong

H2H Record

Favorable

Injury Impact

High

Point Differential
Oklahoma City Thunder+10.6
Phoenix Suns+2.1

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns - Match Analysis

Should I take Oklahoma City to cover the -9.5 spread?

Yes, the Thunder should cover despite the back-to-back situation. Their 35-6 home record and recent 27-point victory over Phoenix demonstrate clear superiority. The Suns are struggling offensively and have been vulnerable to blowouts on the road. Oklahoma City's depth and home court advantage outweigh the fatigue concerns, making them a strong spread play.

Will this game go over or under 225.5 points?

Take the under 225.5 points. Both teams are playing on back-to-back nights, which typically leads to decreased shooting efficiency and lower-scoring affairs. Phoenix has struggled offensively in recent games, averaging well below their season norm. The fatigue factor should result in more missed shots and a slower pace, especially in the second half.

How does the back-to-back schedule affect this matchup?

The back-to-back situation impacts both teams equally, but Oklahoma City is better positioned to handle it. The Thunder have superior depth and the advantage of playing at home, eliminating travel fatigue. Phoenix played a physical game against the Lakers and must now face a rested crowd in a hostile environment. This schedule disadvantage should favor the home team even more significantly.

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