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New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans26th in NBA (16-42)
VS
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors15th in NBA (30-27)

New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors

Wednesday, Feb 25, 2026 · --:--

New Orleans Pelicans Arena

Final
New Orleans Pelicans
113–109
Golden State Warriors

New Orleans Pelicans won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

The New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors prediction highlights a fascinating matchup between two struggling Western Conference teams. The Pelicans (16-42, 26th in NBA) host the Warriors (30-27, 15th) in what could be a crucial game for Golden State's playoff positioning. Both teams enter with significant injury concerns, as the Warriors are missing key players including Stephen Curry, while New Orleans has multiple rotation players sidelined. The schedule situation heavily favors the home team, with the Pelicans enjoying three days of rest compared to Golden State's two-day turnaround. Recent form shows mixed results for both sides - New Orleans has won 3 of their last 6 home games, including impressive victories over Philadelphia and Sacramento, while the Warriors have struggled on the road with defensive lapses. This NBA picks analysis suggests the Warriors' superior talent should prevail, but the rest advantage and home court could keep this competitive. Expert picks lean toward Golden State covering a moderate spread, with basketball betting tips pointing to the over given both teams' recent high-scoring affairs.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Favorable

Injury Impact

High

Season Overview

2026 Season

Record
New Orleans Pelicans16-4426.7%
Golden State Warriors33-2953.2%
Avg Points Scored
New Orleans Pelicans115.2
Golden State Warriors115.6
Avg Points Allowed
New Orleans Pelicans120.9
Golden State Warriors113.9
Point Differential
New Orleans Pelicans-5.7
Golden State Warriors+1.7

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors - Match Analysis

Should I take Golden State to cover the -6.5 spread?

The Warriors face significant challenges covering a large spread without Stephen Curry and other key players. New Orleans has three days rest compared to Golden State's two, creating a meaningful advantage for the home team. The Pelicans have covered 4 of their last 6 home games and typically play competitive basketball at home. While Golden State has superior talent, their recent road defensive struggles and injury situation make covering 6+ points difficult in this spot.

Will this game go over or under 228.5 points?

The over appears likely given both teams' recent scoring trends and defensive vulnerabilities. Golden State has allowed 120+ points in most road games, while New Orleans has scored 115+ in recent home victories. Both teams play at a relatively fast pace, and the Warriors will need to push tempo to compensate for missing players. The total has gone over in 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings, and current form suggests another high-scoring affair is probable.

How does Golden State's injury situation affect this matchup?

The Warriors' extensive injury list, including Stephen Curry, significantly impacts their ceiling in this game. Without their primary playmaker and scorer, Golden State must rely on role players to step up on the road. However, their remaining talent still exceeds New Orleans' overall roster quality. The injuries force the Warriors to play a more balanced attack, which could actually help them avoid over-reliance on individual stars. The key will be whether their depth can maintain intensity for 48 minutes against a rested Pelicans team.

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Last 10 head-to-head matchups

New Orleans Pelicans (3)Golden State Warriors (7)
Nov 30, 25
(H)Golden State Warriors104 - 96New Orleans Pelicans(A)
H
Nov 17, 25
(H)New Orleans Pelicans106 - 124Golden State Warriors(A)
A
Mar 29, 25
(H)New Orleans Pelicans95 - 111Golden State Warriors(A)
A
Nov 23, 24
(H)New Orleans Pelicans108 - 112Golden State Warriors(A)
A
Oct 31, 24
(H)Golden State Warriors104 - 89New Orleans Pelicans(A)
H
Oct 30, 24
(H)Golden State Warriors124 - 106New Orleans Pelicans(A)
H
Apr 13, 24
(H)Golden State Warriors109 - 114New Orleans Pelicans(A)
A
Jan 11, 24
(H)Golden State Warriors105 - 141New Orleans Pelicans(A)
A
Oct 31, 23
(H)New Orleans Pelicans102 - 130Golden State Warriors(A)
A
Jul 10, 23
(H)Golden State Warriors86 - 94New Orleans Pelicans(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Golden State dominates the recent head-to-head series, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings since November 2025. The Warriors captured...

Golden State dominates the recent head-to-head series, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings since November 2025. The Warriors captured both regular season matchups this year, including a comfortable 104-96 home victory and a 124-106 road win in New Orleans. However, the Pelicans showed they can compete, with their lone victory coming in a 114-109 upset at Golden State in April 2024. The Warriors have consistently covered against the spread in this matchup, averaging 115 points per game while holding New Orleans to 103 points. The total has gone over in 3 of the last 5 meetings, suggesting both teams can score when healthy.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsNBA matches highlighted

New Orleans Pelicans

15 of 15 in NBA

W
L
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W
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L

Form Rating

4/10

New Orleans Pelicans Form Analysis

Trending

New Orleans enters with a deceptive 2-3 record in their last 5 games, but context...

New Orleans enters with a deceptive 2-3 record in their last 5 games, but context reveals encouraging signs. The Pelicans dominated Philadelphia 126-111 in their most recent home game and crushed Sacramento 120-94 earlier in the homestand. Their losses came against quality opponents Milwaukee (139-118) and Miami (123-111), with competitive efforts throughout. The three-day rest advantage is crucial for a young team that has shown flashes of offensive brilliance, averaging 115 points in recent home games. Key players like Trey Murphy and Jose Alvarado remain questionable, but the extended rest should help their availability. New Orleans has been particularly effective in the paint recently, outscoring opponents by double digits inside during their home wins.

Golden State Warriors

15 of 15 in NBA

W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
W

Form Rating

4.7/10

Golden State Warriors Form Analysis

Analysis

Golden State shows a concerning 2-3 record in their last 5 games, with defensive struggles...

Golden State shows a concerning 2-3 record in their last 5 games, with defensive struggles plaguing their road performances. The Warriors allowed 131 points to Detroit and 145 to Toronto in recent road losses, highlighting their vulnerability away from home. However, they bounced back with a strong 128-117 home victory over Denver, showcasing their offensive potential when healthy. The absence of Stephen Curry and other key rotation players has forced Golden State to rely heavily on their remaining stars. Their two-day rest disadvantage could be significant, especially considering their upcoming back-to-back situation. The Warriors have averaged 118 points per game in their recent contests but have struggled to contain opposing offenses, allowing 120+ points in 4 of their last 6 road games.

shieldNew Orleans Pelicans9

  • Springer Jaden

    Injured
  • Looney Kevon

    Questionable
  • Alvarado Jose

    Injured
  • Murphy Trey

    Questionable
  • Y. Missi

    Injured
Springer Jaden
Looney Kevon
Alvarado Jose
Murphy Trey
Y. Missi
T. Alexander
M. Peavy
H. Dickinson
C. Shumate

Showing 1-5 of 9 injuries

shieldGolden State Warriors13

  • Porzingis Kristaps

    Questionable
  • Bolden Marques

    Injured
  • Curry Seth

    Injured
  • Jackson-Davis Trayce

    Injured
  • Curry Stephen

    Injured
Porzingis Kristaps
Bolden Marques
Curry Seth
Jackson-Davis Trayce
Curry Stephen
Green Draymond
Kuminga Jonathan
Butler Jimmy
Hield Buddy
J. Rowe
T. Kinsey
M. Leons
L. Cryer

Showing 1-5 of 13 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.