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Toronto Tempo W
Toronto Tempo W4th in NBA W (8-9)
VS
Phoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W7th in NBA W (5-13)

Toronto Tempo W vs Phoenix Mercury W

Saturday, Jun 27, 2026 · --:--

Toronto Tempo W Arena

Final
Toronto Tempo W
80–89
Phoenix Mercury W

Phoenix Mercury W won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Toronto Tempo W vs Phoenix Mercury W prediction brings together two of the WNBA's struggling Eastern and Western Conference sides, with Toronto holding a meaningful home-court edge in this June 27 matchup at Toronto Tempo W Arena.

Toronto sit 4th in the Eastern Conference at 8-11, while Phoenix are 7th in the West at just 5-13 — one of the league's worst records. The standings gap is three places and the points-per-game differential favors Toronto (+0.19). Crucially, Toronto won the only prior meeting this season, 98-90 in Phoenix on May 20, demonstrating they can handle this opponent on the road, let alone at home.

Both teams enter with four days of rest, so schedule fatigue is a non-factor here. Toronto does face higher fixture congestion going forward (4 games in the next 14 days vs. Phoenix's 3), but that doesn't affect this game. The injury picture is notable: Toronto are without A. Held (9 games missed), K. Rice (7 games), and Milic Nikolina (7 games), with Sykes Brittney questionable. Phoenix are missing M. Suarez Rodriguez (6 games), with J. Nogic and Makani Monique both questionable.

Toronto's home record of 4-4 is modest, but Phoenix's road record of 3-7 is poor. With home court, a superior standing, and a recent head-to-head win, Toronto are the value play. Take Toronto on the moneyline and lean toward the Under given both teams' defensive tendencies and injury-depleted rosters.

Key Factors

Last 1 head-to-head matchups

Toronto Tempo W (1)Phoenix Mercury W (0)
May 20, 26
(H)Phoenix Mercury W90 - 98Toronto Tempo W(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

There is one recorded meeting between these teams in the current season: Toronto Tempo W won 98-90 at Phoenix on...

There is one recorded meeting between these teams in the current season: Toronto Tempo W won 98-90 at Phoenix on May 20, 2026. Toronto covered comfortably in that road victory, outscoring Phoenix by 8 points. No additional head-to-head data is available from prior seasons in the supplied records. That single result gives Toronto a psychological edge and confirms they can match up well against Phoenix's roster, particularly relevant now that Toronto host this rematch.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsNBA W matches highlighted

Toronto Tempo W

15 of 15 in NBA W

L
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L

Form Rating

4.7/10

Toronto Tempo W Form Analysis

Trending

Toronto Tempo W are 8-11 overall and sit 4th in the Eastern Conference. Their recent...

Toronto Tempo W are 8-11 overall and sit 4th in the Eastern Conference. Their recent run has been inconsistent — 1 win in their last 5 games, with losses to Atlanta, Indiana, and Washington sandwiching a road win over Connecticut. At home, Toronto are 4-4, averaging 83.8 points scored and 83.4 conceded — a tighter defensive profile than their road numbers suggest. The injury list is significant, with three players out (A. Held, K. Rice, Milic Nikolina) and Sykes Brittney questionable, limiting rotation depth heading into this contest.

Phoenix Mercury W

15 of 15 in NBA W

L
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
W

Form Rating

2.7/10

Phoenix Mercury W Form Analysis

Analysis

Phoenix Mercury W are 5-13 overall, 7th in the Western Conference and among the league's...

Phoenix Mercury W are 5-13 overall, 7th in the Western Conference and among the league's worst teams by points per game (0.28 PPG in standings). Their recent form shows 1 win in their last 5 games, with losses to Indiana, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Dallas. On the road, Phoenix are just 3-7, averaging only 77.8 points scored per away game — a low-scoring profile that suits an Under lean. M. Suarez Rodriguez is out (6 games missed), while J. Nogic and Makani Monique are both questionable, further thinning Phoenix's available options.

Season Overview

2026 Season

Record
Toronto Tempo W8-1142.1%
Phoenix Mercury W6-1331.6%
Avg Points Scored
Toronto Tempo W87.6
Phoenix Mercury W83.5
Avg Points Allowed
Toronto Tempo W90.3
Phoenix Mercury W86.9

shieldToronto Tempo W4

  • Sykes Brittney

    Questionable

  • Milic Nikolina

    Injured

  • K. Rice

    Injured

  • A. Held

    Injured
Sykes Brittney
Milic Nikolina
K. Rice
A. Held

shieldPhoenix Mercury W3

  • Makani Monique

    Questionable

  • J. Nogic

    Questionable

  • M. Suarez Rodriguez

    Injured
Makani Monique
J. Nogic
M. Suarez Rodriguez

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

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All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

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Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Favorable

Injury Impact

High

Point Differential
Toronto Tempo W-2.7
Phoenix Mercury W-3.4

Toronto Tempo W vs Phoenix Mercury W - Match Analysis

Should I take Toronto Tempo W to cover the spread at home?

Yes, Toronto are the recommended spread pick. They hold home court, sit three places above Phoenix in the standings, and already beat Phoenix by 8 points on the road earlier this season. Phoenix's road record of 3-7 and low away scoring average (77.8 PPG) make them a poor bet to cover on the road. Toronto's injury concerns are real but Phoenix are similarly depleted, keeping the edge firmly with the home side. Medium confidence on Toronto covering.

Will this Toronto vs Phoenix game go over or under the total?

The Under is the preferred total pick. Phoenix average just 77.8 points per road game — one of the lowest away scoring marks in the league. Toronto's home games average 83.8 scored and 83.4 conceded, suggesting a tight, lower-scoring environment. Add in the injury absences on both rosters limiting rotation depth, and a combined total in the 155-165 range is realistic. Unless both teams shoot unusually well, the Under looks like the smarter basketball betting tip here.

Can Phoenix Mercury W pull off the road upset against Toronto?

It's possible but unlikely. Phoenix are 3-7 on the road this season and already lost to Toronto 90-98 in their only prior meeting. With M. Suarez Rodriguez out and both J. Nogic and Makani Monique questionable, Phoenix's available roster is thin. Their away scoring average of 77.8 PPG makes it hard to generate enough offense to win on the road. Toronto's home court and superior standing make an upset a low-probability outcome, though Phoenix have shown they can win away games on occasion.

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