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Las Vegas Aces W Arena
New York Liberty W won
The Las Vegas Aces host the New York Liberty in a high-stakes WNBA matchup on June 24, with the Aces entering as narrow favorites at roughly 54% probability. Sitting at 12-4 on the season compared to New York's 11-6 record, Las Vegas carries both a superior win percentage and the benefit of home court advantage at Michelins Court.
The Aces' roster depth is a key factor here. Players like Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Kelsey Plum-caliber contributors across the lineup give Las Vegas multiple offensive options, while Breanna Stewart anchors New York's attack on the other side. Neither team has confirmed significant injury absences heading into this game, keeping the matchup relatively balanced on paper.
Bookmaker consensus aligns closely with the statistical picture, pricing the Aces as modest favorites rather than heavy ones. That spread reflects the Liberty's genuine competitiveness — Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart give New York the star power to win on any given night, and their 11-6 record confirms they are no pushover on the road.
For bettors, the Aces at home in a tight divisional-style contest represents a reasonable lean rather than a lock. The medium confidence rating signals this is a game where the margin could be slim, making team totals or spread alternatives worth considering alongside the moneyline. Las Vegas's home record and overall efficiency edge make them the logical side to back.
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Looking at head-to-head results from the last two seasons, the most recent meeting on August 14, 2025 saw Las Vegas...
Looking at head-to-head results from the last two seasons, the most recent meeting on August 14, 2025 saw Las Vegas win 83-77 at home. Prior to that, New York won two straight matchups in 2025 (78-92 and 78-87 as host). The Liberty have historically dominated this series, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters across both venues. However, Las Vegas has shown they can win at home in this rivalry, and the most recent result favors the Aces heading into this contest.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsNBA W matches highlighted
15 of 15 in NBA W
Form Rating
7.3/10
Las Vegas sits second in the Western Conference at 11-5, riding a strong stretch that...
Las Vegas sits second in the Western Conference at 11-5, riding a strong stretch that includes wins over Minnesota Lynx, Portland Fire, and Phoenix Mercury in recent weeks. Their last outing was a road victory over Phoenix on June 18, giving them 5 full days of rest heading into this game. The Aces' away form (8-3) is exceptional, though their home record (3-2) is less dominant. C. Carter and J. Barker are both listed as Questionable, which could affect rotation depth. Despite this, Las Vegas's overall consistency and defensive efficiency — conceding just 87.4 points per game — make them a credible home favorite.
15 of 15 in NBA W
Form Rating
6.7/10
New York Liberty sit second in the Eastern Conference at 12-6, but have shown some...
New York Liberty sit second in the Eastern Conference at 12-6, but have shown some vulnerability recently — dropping their last home game to Washington Mystics 83-86 on June 19. Their road record is a stunning 6-1, making them one of the most dangerous away teams in the league. However, the injury report is a real concern: A. Maley has missed 9 games and is Out, Fauthoux Marine is Out after missing 3 games, and B. Laney, Carrera Raquel, and R. Allen are all Questionable. S. Ionescu and B. Stewart remain the Liberty's primary offensive engines, but depth is stretched heading into Las Vegas.
2026 Season
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
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Las Vegas Aces W vs New York Liberty W - Match Analysis
Yes, with medium confidence. Las Vegas holds home court advantage and enters with 5 days of rest versus New York's 4. The Liberty's injury report is a genuine concern — A. Maley and Fauthoux Marine are both Out, with three more players Questionable. The Aces' recent form includes wins over Minnesota and Phoenix, and they've shown they can win this rivalry at home. A spread of -2.5 to -3.5 for Las Vegas reflects fair value given these factors.
The Under looks more appealing here. Las Vegas concedes just 87.4 points per game and New York allows 83.2, making this a matchup of two defensively capable teams. The Liberty's missing players — particularly A. Maley and Fauthoux Marine — reduce their offensive depth and scoring potential. Both teams have shown they can grind out lower-scoring wins. An Under around 168-172 combined points aligns well with the defensive profiles and New York's depleted rotation.
Absolutely possible. New York's 6-1 road record this season is one of the best in the league, and S. Ionescu and B. Stewart are capable of carrying the team even with reduced depth. The Liberty have won 7 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings overall. If the Questionable players — B. Laney, Carrera Raquel, and R. Allen — are cleared to play, New York's chances improve significantly. The +3.5 or greater spread for the Liberty offers solid value as a hedge.
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