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Las Vegas Aces W Arena
Chicago Sky W won
The Las Vegas Aces W vs Chicago Sky W prediction on July 4th sees one of the WNBA's most dominant home programs host a struggling Chicago side that arrives in Las Vegas as heavy underdogs.
Las Vegas enters with a 14-6 record and strong recent momentum, having beaten Chicago 107-99 on the road just six days ago. The Aces boast a 70% win rate and have been particularly lethal away from home (9-3), though their home record (5-3) is slightly softer. With five full rest days since their last game, fatigue is not a concern heading into this contest.
Chicago's 6-15 record tells a difficult story. The Sky have lost 15 of 21 games and are 3-7 on the road this season, averaging just 84.1 points per game away from home. Compounding matters, M. Westbeld and S. Poffenbarger are both listed as Out, having missed three games each, while R. Banham is Questionable. That's meaningful roster attrition for a team already thin on margin for error. Chicago does have the same five rest days as Las Vegas, so schedule parity exists.
The Aces' fixture congestion is worth noting — they face a back-to-back starting tomorrow — but tonight's game comes fresh. Las Vegas is the clear pick to win outright. The spread likely reflects a double-digit cushion, and given the Aces' recent 8-point road win over this same Chicago squad, covering at home should be well within reach.
2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Looking at head-to-head meetings from 2024 onward, Las Vegas holds a commanding edge. The Aces won both home meetings in...
Looking at head-to-head meetings from 2024 onward, Las Vegas holds a commanding edge. The Aces won both home meetings in September 2025 by margins of 31 and 14 points respectively, while Chicago claimed a home win in August 2025 by five. The most recent encounter on June 28, 2026 saw Las Vegas win 107-99 in Chicago. In their last four meetings across both venues, Las Vegas has won three. The Aces have historically dominated this matchup at home, winning convincingly when hosting.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsNBA W matches highlighted
15 of 15 in NBA W
Form Rating
7.3/10
Las Vegas has won 4 of their last 5 games, including a commanding road victory...
Las Vegas has won 4 of their last 5 games, including a commanding road victory over Chicago and a 15-point home win over Dallas Wings. Their only recent blemish was a home loss to New York Liberty. The Aces are averaging over 90 points per game on the season and have shown they can win in multiple styles — grinding out close games and blowing teams out. J. Barker is listed as Questionable after missing two games, which bears monitoring, but the roster depth across A. Wilson, J. Loyd, and others provides resilience. Five rest days means the Aces arrive fresh.
15 of 15 in NBA W
Form Rating
2/10
Chicago has won just 6 of 21 games and enters this road trip in poor...
Chicago has won just 6 of 21 games and enters this road trip in poor form, going 1-4 in their last five contests. Their lone recent bright spot was back-to-back home wins over Portland Fire, but they were then beaten 107-99 by Las Vegas in their most recent outing. Road numbers are troubling — 3-7 away from home, averaging only 84.1 points per game on the road. The injury situation worsens their outlook: M. Westbeld and S. Poffenbarger are both Out (three games missed each), and R. Banham is Questionable. Chicago's depleted rotation will be tested against a rested Aces squad.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Moderate
Strong
Favorable
Moderate
Las Vegas Aces W vs Chicago Sky W - Match Analysis
Yes, Las Vegas covering the spread is the top pick here. The Aces beat Chicago by eight points on the road just six days ago, and now host a depleted Sky squad missing two rotation players in Westbeld and Poffenbarger. Las Vegas's home court, superior record (14-6 vs 6-15), and fresh legs after five rest days all support a comfortable margin. Chicago's road scoring average of 84.1 points per game further limits their ability to keep this competitive.
Lean toward the Under if the total is set above 195. Chicago averages only 84.1 points per game on the road this season, and their injury situation — with Westbeld and Poffenbarger both out — further constrains their offensive output. Las Vegas's home defense has been solid, conceding 88.9 per game at home. The combined scoring profile suggests a final score in the 185-200 range, making an Under on a higher-set total the smarter play.
An upset is very unlikely. Chicago is 3-7 on the road, has lost to Las Vegas in their most recent meeting, and arrives with two key players ruled out. The Aces are well-rested, playing at home, and have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings. Bookmakers price Chicago's win probability at just 16.9%, and the underlying data supports that assessment. Unless Las Vegas suffers unexpected absences on game day, Chicago has very little path to victory here.
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