Prediction Model Formula
- Form Weight: 35%
- H2H Factor: 20%
- xG Analysis: 25%
- Venue Boost: 20%
AI vs Market Probabilities
- Zalgiris Kaunas58%
- Monaco42%
Analysis
Point spread analysis favors Zalgiris based on several key factors converging in their favor. The home court advantage at Zalgiris Arena provides approximately 3-4 points, while Monaco's recent road struggles and defensive inconsistencies create additional value. Rest advantage appears neutral, but Zalgiris' recent road victories suggest improved form and confidence. The Lithuanian side's desperation for playoff positioning, combined with their strong home record against quality opposition, makes them an attractive spread pick. Monaco's offensive capabilities keep this competitive, but their defensive vulnerabilities on the road have been consistently exploited by well-prepared home teams.












