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Valencia
Valencia3rd in Euroleague (18-10)
VS
Zalgiris Kaunas
Zalgiris Kaunas4th in Euroleague (17-12)

Valencia vs Zalgiris Kaunas

Thursday, Mar 5, 2026 · --:--

Valencia Arena

Final
Valencia
91–87
Zalgiris Kaunas

Valencia won

✓Our prediction was correct

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Valencia vs Zalgiris Kaunas prediction highlights a crucial Euroleague clash at Valencia Arena. Valencia sits third in the standings with 18 wins from 28 games, while Zalgiris occupies fourth place with 17 wins from 29 games. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, making this a pivotal matchup. Valencia enjoys excellent home form with 12 wins in 14 home games, averaging 90.1 points while conceding just 81.1. However, their recent form shows inconsistency with just 2 wins in their last 5 Euroleague games. Zalgiris arrives with strong momentum, having won 4 of their last 6 games including impressive victories over Monaco and Olimpia Milano. The Lithuanian side has been excellent on the road this season, though they've struggled defensively away from home. With 18 days rest for Valencia versus 8 for Zalgiris, both teams are well-rested. Expert picks favor Valencia's home court advantage and superior offensive efficiency. NBA picks suggest backing the home side in this high-stakes encounter, with basketball betting tips pointing to Valencia's home dominance as the key factor.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Valencia (3)Zalgiris Kaunas (7)
Nov 7, 25
(H)Zalgiris Kaunas86 - 77Valencia(A)
H
Jan 9, 24
(H)Valencia79 - 84Zalgiris Kaunas(A)
A
Oct 27, 23
(H)Zalgiris Kaunas72 - 87Valencia(A)
A
Mar 31, 23
(H)Zalgiris Kaunas95 - 74Valencia(A)
H
Nov 25, 22
(H)Valencia76 - 80Zalgiris Kaunas(A)
A
Jan 27, 21
(H)Valencia78 - 79Zalgiris Kaunas(A)
A
Oct 22, 20
(H)Zalgiris Kaunas82 - 94Valencia(A)
A
Jan 18, 18
(H)Zalgiris Kaunas86 - 82Valencia(A)
H
Dec 21, 17
(H)Valencia63 - 71Zalgiris Kaunas(A)
A
Feb 24, 11
(H)Zalgiris Kaunas74 - 80Valencia(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent head-to-head meetings favor Zalgiris, who won the reverse fixture 86-77 in Kaunas earlier this season. The Lithuanian side has...

Recent head-to-head meetings favor Zalgiris, who won the reverse fixture 86-77 in Kaunas earlier this season. The Lithuanian side has dominated this matchup historically, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters since 2017. However, Valencia showed resilience in their home meetings, with games typically being close affairs. The average total in recent H2H games has been around 163 points, suggesting a more defensive battle than both teams' season averages would indicate.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsEuroleague matches highlighted

Valencia

8 of 15 in Euroleague

W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
L

Form Rating

5.3/10

Valencia Form Analysis

Trending

Valencia enters with mixed recent form, winning just 2 of their last 5 Euroleague games...

Valencia enters with mixed recent form, winning just 2 of their last 5 Euroleague games despite strong home performances. Their 12-2 home record is impressive, with the team averaging 90.1 points per game at Valencia Arena while allowing just 81.1. The Spanish side has been particularly effective in blowout wins, as evidenced by their 115-73 demolition of Basket Zaragoza. However, they've struggled against elite opposition, losing to Fenerbahce, Real Madrid, and Monaco in recent weeks. With 18 days of rest, Valencia should be fresh but may lack game rhythm. Their offensive efficiency remains strong, but defensive consistency has been questionable against top-tier teams.

Zalgiris Kaunas

7 of 15 in Euroleague

W
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
W

Form Rating

8.7/10

Zalgiris Kaunas Form Analysis

Analysis

Zalgiris arrives in excellent form, having won 4 of their last 6 games including quality...

Zalgiris arrives in excellent form, having won 4 of their last 6 games including quality victories over Monaco (104-87) and Olimpia Milano (86-82). The Lithuanian champions have shown impressive offensive firepower, averaging 89 points per game this season. Their recent overtime victory against Olympiacos (99-94) demonstrates their mental toughness in crucial moments. However, their away record of 7-8 reveals vulnerability on the road, particularly defensively where they allow 88.4 points per game away from home. With 8 days rest, Zalgiris maintains good rhythm while being adequately rested for this crucial playoff race encounter.

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Valencia18-1064.3%
Zalgiris Kaunas17-1258.6%
Avg Points Scored
Valencia90.4
Zalgiris Kaunas89.0
Avg Points Allowed
Valencia86.1
Zalgiris Kaunas83.6

shieldValencia4

  • Iroegbu Ike

    Injured

  • Costello Matt

    Questionable

  • Montero Jean

    Questionable

  • I. Nogues Gonzalez

    Questionable
Iroegbu Ike
Costello Matt
Montero Jean
I. Nogues Gonzalez

shieldZalgiris Kaunas7

  • Rubstavicius Mantas

    Questionable

  • Sirvydis Deividas

    Questionable

  • Buika Dovydas

    Injured

  • D. Daubaris

    Questionable

  • K. Mikalauskas

    Injured
Rubstavicius Mantas
Sirvydis Deividas
Buika Dovydas
D. Daubaris
K. Mikalauskas
I. Stombergas
D. Grunkis

Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Unfavorable

Injury Impact

High

Point Differential
Valencia+4.3
Zalgiris Kaunas+5.4

Valencia vs Zalgiris Kaunas - Match Analysis

Should I take Valencia to cover the -4.5 spread?

Valencia's exceptional 12-2 home record and 90.1 points per game at home strongly support covering the spread. Zalgiris struggles defensively on the road, allowing 88.4 points per game away from home. With Valencia's rest advantage and home court dominance, they should win by more than 4.5 points against a Zalgiris side that has covered just 7 of 15 road games this season.

Will this game go over or under 175.5 points?

The Over 175.5 looks promising based on both teams' offensive capabilities. Valencia averages 90.1 points at home while Zalgiris scores 90.1 on the road. Despite their recent H2H games being lower-scoring, both teams have improved offensively this season. Valencia's home games typically see higher totals, and Zalgiris's road defensive struggles suggest this could exceed the total comfortably.

How does Valencia's 18-day rest affect this matchup?

Valencia's extended rest period is a double-edged sword. While they'll be physically fresh and have had time to prepare specifically for this crucial game, they may lack game rhythm compared to Zalgiris who played just 8 days ago. However, given the importance of this playoff positioning game, Valencia's coaching staff will have used the time effectively to address recent defensive issues and fine-tune their home court strategies.

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